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]]>African nations are part of the area on our planet defined as the Global South. Geographically, the term, Global South is a misnomer, since many nations in that category can be found in northern latitudes. More than half of Africa lies north of the Equator.
Global South nations share many common characteristics:
Global South nations have large marginalized populations, suffer from entrenched systemic social inequality, have fewer democratic institutions, and often feature sclerotic leadership that favours nepotism over talent.
In the late 19th century, with rapid industrialization creating demand for coal and other mined minerals and materials, British miners began taking canaries underground. It even became a formalized practice in the United Kingdom after 1911.
The canaries served as an early warning system because the birds reacted faster than the miners to carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. If a canary stopped singing, CO was likely the cause. Low oxygen and high carbon dioxide levels also affected canaries before the miners.
Hence, the expression “a canary in the coal mine” was born. Today’s climate canaries are often equated with another term, “tipping points.” They include: polar sea and continental ice melt, permafrost thaw, sea level rise, coral reef bleaching, extreme weather events, and natural diversity and population decline.
The latest study from the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) describes how rising temperatures on the continent are having a significant impact. Although the study confines itself to the southern half of the continent, it describes what is being seen across the whole of Africa.
It notes that increasing extreme heat events present a systemic challenge. Heat events contribute “to rising rates of cardiovascular, respiratory and renal illness, worsening malnutrition and increasing mental health stress.”
Extreme heat is impacting agricultural productivity, leading to:
None of the above stops at borders. Hence, the study, which confines itself to Africa’s lower half, is equally representative of what is happening continent-wide.
Africa will see mean atmospheric temperatures across all five regions of the continent exceed the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold by 2040, even if we begin cutting the amount of global carbon we currently emit within this decade.
Where will Africa experience its first canary moments? New research published in CABI Reviews last year was based on work being done at the University of Zimbabwe and the International Livestock Research Institute in Kenya. It indicates that Africa has less adaptive capacity because of a heavy reliance on subsistence agriculture and lower economic development to fight the consequences of this temperature rise.
Canary moments will include:
The canary metaphor for Africa, related to the rest of the planet, sees the continent experiencing intensified heat, droughts, floods, crop declines, freshwater stress, coral bleaching, vector-borne disease spread, and famine.
These indicators should provide the canary for the rest of us in the 21st century. Even with the warning, based on our recent collective reaction to rising carbon emissions and atmospheric temperatures, we likely will continue to be distracted from this slow-moving crisis. Africa’s pain will be perpetuated elsewhere. Professor Paul Mapfumo, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Zimbabwe, attempts to summarize the findings from the CABI report, stating:
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