It is getting hotter faster in Africa than anywhere else on Earth. Rainfall is becoming more unpredictable. Sea-level rise is eroding river deltas and threatening coastal cities. The growth in agricultural production is plateauing rather than continuing to climb to meet the continent’s growing population. Endemic diseases, spread by mosquitoes, are moving from the equator to the more temperate zones of the continent.
Africa is the “Global South”
African nations are part of the area on our planet defined as the Global South. Geographically, the term, Global South is a misnomer, since many nations in that category can be found in northern latitudes. More than half of Africa lies north of the Equator.
Global South nations share many common characteristics:
- They are post-colonial, with some still tied by apron strings to the past.
- They have underdeveloped infrastructures.
- Power distribution is uneven, with demand exceeding supply.
- They have fewer post-secondary institutions per capita.
- They have fewer post-secondary enrollees.
- They have lower per-capita income and higher poverty and illiteracy rates.
- They have more extractive industries than manufacturers.
- They heavily rely on agriculture.
Global South nations have large marginalized populations, suffer from entrenched systemic social inequality, have fewer democratic institutions, and often feature sclerotic leadership that favours nepotism over talent.
The “Climate” Canary
In the late 19th century, with rapid industrialization creating demand for coal and other mined minerals and materials, British miners began taking canaries underground. It even became a formalized practice in the United Kingdom after 1911.
The canaries served as an early warning system because the birds reacted faster than the miners to carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. If a canary stopped singing, CO was likely the cause. Low oxygen and high carbon dioxide levels also affected canaries before the miners.
Hence, the expression “a canary in the coal mine” was born. Today’s climate canaries are often equated with another term, “tipping points.” They include: polar sea and continental ice melt, permafrost thaw, sea level rise, coral reef bleaching, extreme weather events, and natural diversity and population decline.
Africa Bearing the Heat
The latest study from the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) describes how rising temperatures on the continent are having a significant impact. Although the study confines itself to the southern half of the continent, it describes what is being seen across the whole of Africa.
It notes that increasing extreme heat events present a systemic challenge. Heat events contribute “to rising rates of cardiovascular, respiratory and renal illness, worsening malnutrition and increasing mental health stress.”
Extreme heat is impacting agricultural productivity, leading to:
- A decline in the yields of basic food crops and a rise in food insecurity.
- Accelerating rates of freshwater scarcity because of increasing evaporation, excessive use of groundwater aquifers, and declining riverine flows.
- More frequent heat-driven wildfires and subsequent declining air quality.
None of the above stops at borders. Hence, the study, which confines itself to Africa’s lower half, is equally representative of what is happening continent-wide.
Africa’s “Canary” Moments
Africa will see mean atmospheric temperatures across all five regions of the continent exceed the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold by 2040, even if we begin cutting the amount of global carbon we currently emit within this decade.
Where will Africa experience its first canary moments? New research published in CABI Reviews last year was based on work being done at the University of Zimbabwe and the International Livestock Research Institute in Kenya. It indicates that Africa has less adaptive capacity because of a heavy reliance on subsistence agriculture and lower economic development to fight the consequences of this temperature rise.
Canary moments will include:
- Significant warming leading to severe heat stress for populations lacking air conditioning, leading to excess mortality rates over the norm.
- Intensification of water insecurity, with areas of the continent experiencing inundations and flooding, and other parts in prolonged periods of drought with shorter growing seasons.
- Agricultural yield declines leading to food shortages, rising requests for food aid, and increasing levels of malnutrition beyond the current norm.
- Rising sea temperatures, yielding extensive coral bleaching and die-offs, with declining fishery yields, furthering the malnutrition crisis.
- Measurable declines in average income per capita and the GDP of nations across the continent.
The canary metaphor for Africa, related to the rest of the planet, sees the continent experiencing intensified heat, droughts, floods, crop declines, freshwater stress, coral bleaching, vector-borne disease spread, and famine.
These indicators should provide the canary for the rest of us in the 21st century. Even with the warning, based on our recent collective reaction to rising carbon emissions and atmospheric temperatures, we likely will continue to be distracted from this slow-moving crisis. Africa’s pain will be perpetuated elsewhere. Professor Paul Mapfumo, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Zimbabwe, attempts to summarize the findings from the CABI report, stating:
