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]]>African nations are part of the area on our planet defined as the Global South. Geographically, the term, Global South is a misnomer, since many nations in that category can be found in northern latitudes. More than half of Africa lies north of the Equator.
Global South nations share many common characteristics:
Global South nations have large marginalized populations, suffer from entrenched systemic social inequality, have fewer democratic institutions, and often feature sclerotic leadership that favours nepotism over talent.
In the late 19th century, with rapid industrialization creating demand for coal and other mined minerals and materials, British miners began taking canaries underground. It even became a formalized practice in the United Kingdom after 1911.
The canaries served as an early warning system because the birds reacted faster than the miners to carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. If a canary stopped singing, CO was likely the cause. Low oxygen and high carbon dioxide levels also affected canaries before the miners.
Hence, the expression “a canary in the coal mine” was born. Today’s climate canaries are often equated with another term, “tipping points.” They include: polar sea and continental ice melt, permafrost thaw, sea level rise, coral reef bleaching, extreme weather events, and natural diversity and population decline.
The latest study from the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) describes how rising temperatures on the continent are having a significant impact. Although the study confines itself to the southern half of the continent, it describes what is being seen across the whole of Africa.
It notes that increasing extreme heat events present a systemic challenge. Heat events contribute “to rising rates of cardiovascular, respiratory and renal illness, worsening malnutrition and increasing mental health stress.”
Extreme heat is impacting agricultural productivity, leading to:
None of the above stops at borders. Hence, the study, which confines itself to Africa’s lower half, is equally representative of what is happening continent-wide.
Africa will see mean atmospheric temperatures across all five regions of the continent exceed the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold by 2040, even if we begin cutting the amount of global carbon we currently emit within this decade.
Where will Africa experience its first canary moments? New research published in CABI Reviews last year was based on work being done at the University of Zimbabwe and the International Livestock Research Institute in Kenya. It indicates that Africa has less adaptive capacity because of a heavy reliance on subsistence agriculture and lower economic development to fight the consequences of this temperature rise.
Canary moments will include:
The canary metaphor for Africa, related to the rest of the planet, sees the continent experiencing intensified heat, droughts, floods, crop declines, freshwater stress, coral bleaching, vector-borne disease spread, and famine.
These indicators should provide the canary for the rest of us in the 21st century. Even with the warning, based on our recent collective reaction to rising carbon emissions and atmospheric temperatures, we likely will continue to be distracted from this slow-moving crisis. Africa’s pain will be perpetuated elsewhere. Professor Paul Mapfumo, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Zimbabwe, attempts to summarize the findings from the CABI report, stating:
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]]>China in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere and Russia in Eurasia are carving the planet into geopolitical spheres and circling one another like boxers in the ring. Meanwhile, humanity continues to consume the sum total of Earth’s resources every three months. This is unsustainable.
When I received a telephone call a few days ago from a friend in the Liberal Party of Canada from a neighbouring riding, (full disclosure, I am a Policy Chair for the Party here in my home riding in Oakville, Ontario), he asked me if I wanted to join a group of Liberals concerned with the current state of geopolitics and wanting to create a new narrative, I said yes.
The latest war in the Middle East involves the United States, Israel and Iran, as well as the latter’s neighbours, who are being dragged into it. This has happened not more than a few days after President Trump chaired the first meeting of the Board of Peace for Gaza and Palestine. This new conflict is costing more than a billion-dollars-a-day. The goal appears to aim at changing the Middle East status quo, but it will likely do nothing more than cause death and destruction, followed by a massive rebuilding effort without resolution, leading to future violent outbreaks. War in the Middle East appears to be an endless cycle.
Meanwhile, China keeps building a nuclear arsenal and navy to bully neighbours in the South China Sea, and to assert its hegemony in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean. China talks about reuniting Taiwan with the mainland, if not peacefully, then by force. Taiwan’s supporters remain steadfast in defence of the island’s independence. The unanswered question remains. Will this spark the next world war?
Then there is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which appears to have no end in sight. Russia’s “police action” is more than 4 years old. Today, the frontlines of the conflict resemble the Western Front in World War I. Ukraine is supported by NATO countries and the European Union. With the front inching in metres rather than kilometres, the static land war has turned into a bloody grind. Where the action lies is in the air with drone swarms, missiles and glide bombs dispensed upon enemy targets, both military and civilian. It is the biggest Eurasian land war since World War II. That it hasn’t gone global is more about the fear of Russia’s nuclear capacity leading to a global Armageddon.
Israel has been using this latest Middle East conflict to re-engage Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon. It is a continuation of the war initiated by Hamas in its attack on Israel in October 2023, followed by the latter’s subsequent retaliation in Gaza. Gaza’s status, the future of Hamas, Hezbollah, and a weakened Iran, remain up in the air. Meanwhile, in a strange twist, Iran’s latest response to the United States and Israel is to align more Arab countries with them to stop Iranian attacks. Israeli weapon systems are now being used in Arab countries to combat Iranian attacks.
The first two world wars featured identifiable combatants. World War I had its Triple Entente (Britain, France, and Russia), joined by Italy, Japan and the United States, facing the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire).
In World War II, the Allies (Britain and the Commonwealth, France and its overseas empire, and China) were joined by the USSR after it was attacked, and the United States, even later after Pearl Harbor, faced the Axis (Germany, Italy and Japan). These combatants could be identified by cause, ideology, and goals.
That cannot be said about wars today, a long and growing list, as you can see below:
Today, we have a Great Power struggle emerging involving the United States, Russia and China. These are the national players of future global conflicts.
Wars in the 20th century and earlier were fought to control land and resources. In World War II, Germany sought Lebensraum while Japan sought to establish a Europe-free East Asian Prosperity Sphere. Will we see 21st-century wars follow a similar path, carving out spheres of influence?
Another player in future global conflicts is not a country. It is climate change which will exacerbate scarcity and disrupt economies.
A closer look provides a glimpse of the struggle that lies ahead.
It is hard to describe Trump as a peacemaker, although he craves the Nobel Peace Prize.
His “America First” policies pose threats to both his adversaries and allies. He has reasserted the 19th-century hegemonic Monroe Doctrine, threatens to seize Greenland from Denmark, and questions NATO’s purpose, challenging members to spend more on their militaries.
Trump displays revised American maps showing Canada as the 51st state. He threatens to invade Mexico to quell the drugs coming across the border.
Where will all of this posturing take America? With Trump having three years left in his mandate, how many more allies will he target?
What form of “manifest destiny” will drive his next ambitions?
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, is the Trump of Russia with a dose of more cunning. He wants to restore the post-World War II Soviet empire. He has referred to the collapse of the USSR as the worst geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.
Are his territorial ambitions limited to reabsorbing Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus and the Baltic states? Will it end there, or will the Central Asian republics be fair game, as well as the nations of the former Warsaw Pact?
His willingness to play the nuclear card makes his threats more sinister.
Xi Jinping sits alone atop China. It is his vision to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. He is behind China’s industrial, economic and trade strategies. He seeks control of the South China Sea, asserting exclusive sovereignty over its waters and resources.
China’s “no limits” alliance with Russia is Xi’s policy. It secures China’s northern border, gives the country access to discounted Russian energy, and counterbalances the future threat from a rearming Japan and America’s vague assurances to defend Taiwan.
China’s nuclear arsenal and rapidly expanding navy represent future points of conflict with America, reminiscent of Japan’s naval expansion before World War II. If that history lesson isn’t enough, then China should look to the guns of August 1914 that began World War I, started by a naval arms race between Germany and Britain to build ever-more Dreadnought-class battleships.
The last conflict accelerator is climate change. Its influence in 21st century conflict is already profound, and many climatologists recognize that the next El Niño event may prove to be not just a global warming but also a conflict amplifier.
The next El Niño will begin later this year. Past climate data shows that the last half-decade, even during La Niñas, presents an alarming trend. We are experiencing the warmest temperatures recorded since the mid-19th century, and they continue to climb.
In studying the past through the lens of climate change, we now know that climate variability plays a critical role in conflict. A world heating up acts like a conflict accelerator and risk multiplier.
Here is a past example that I have previously described on this blog site. It involves the Roman Empire with new paleo-climate evidence explaining the impetus behind tribes from Central Asia migrating to the edges of the Roman Empire in the 2nd, 3rd and 5th centuries. It turns out, climate change was the driver. Now, classical historians see climate change pressures as key to explaining the Western Roman Empire’s disintegration in the 5th century.
A more contemporary example can be found in today’s Africa. Here, evidence shows the role increasing temperatures are playing in disrupting the African nations of the Sahel. Climate change is causing crop failures, droughts, food shortages, freshwater scarcity, and disease outbreaks. These conditions are linked to rising violence and civil wars across the Sahel, to the tragedies in Sudan’s Darfur, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia.
Climatologists express concern that the next El Niño could drive mean global temperatures well above the 1.5°C (2.7°F) acceptable lower threshold agreed to by signatories to the Paris Climate Agreement.
One can hope that instead of being a conflict accelerator, it speeds up mitigation efforts to tackle wildfires, crop failures, food and water shortages and the spread of vector-borne diseases. Then, climate change can be seen as a de-escalator of conflict and an accelerator to transition from carbon energy to renewables. Instead of conflict, our collective efforts can focus on projects to reduce climate change, rather than on conflicts that point to a darker 21st-century future.
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]]>Laura Pereira is a professor at the Global Change Institute, University of Witwatersrand in South Africa and a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Her area of expertise focuses on sustainability transformations and the future.
Pereira wants to see more African involvement in discussions about climate and environmental change, exploring transformative pathways to support sustainable jobs and a resilient future. Pereira states that the climate agenda shouldn’t just focus on carbon as a metric. Nature, biodiversity and people need to be brought into the equation.
Pereira sits on the Earth Commission and serves on the IPBES, an independent South African intergovernmental body focused on science policy.
Pereira was in Belém at COP30. She spoke to University World News (UWN) about the need for more African voices in shaping global climate policy. Her work on the climate change file includes studying the indigenous knowledge of Africa’s peoples, developing strategies to support biodiversity, and assisting local communities with climate mitigation and adaptation. The focus is not on sequestering carbon.
Pereira noted that climate change mitigation financing remains critical for Africa, stating:
“Africa is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world, and getting adaptation financing right is absolutely critical. From a South African perspective, the just transition is also central, especially questions around how to finance a fair energy transition that does not leave people behind, even as we shift toward renewable energy systems.”
COP30, called the Nature COP, took place near the mouth of the Amazon River. The rainforest was right there for the delegates to experience. Pereira noted that, like Amazonia, much of Africa is vulnerable to climate change with similar biodiversity and ecosystems. Stated Pereira,
“Ensuring these ecosystems are protected, both from climate change and from poorly designed mitigation interventions, is another critical aspect that needs to be accounted for.”
Pereira sees a much larger global role for African researchers to keep global warming in check. To date, African data remains underrepresented in existing climate models, projections, and impact assessments. Pereira further noted that until recently, few African universities had standing in the COP proceedings and called for the strengthening of the relationship with the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), a coalition of nations providing scientific expertise and evidence. Among these are the University of Nairobi, in Kenya, University of Cape Coast, in Ghana, University of Lagos, in Nigeria, Makerere University, in Uganda, and, of course, her alma mater, Witwatersrand, in South Africa. Pereira stated that these universities “can help break traditional development paradigms tied to fossil fuels and explore transformative pathways that support sustainable jobs and resilient societies.”
If you need more information about COP30 and what it did and didn’t accomplish, I refer you to a previous posting on this blog site.
African voices need to be heard more, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Why? Because climate change is warming faster in Africa than the global average.
In 2023, Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, stated:
“Over the past 60 years, Africa has observed a warming trend that has become more rapid than the global average. In 2023, the continent experienced deadly heatwaves, heavy rains, floods, tropical cyclones, and prolonged droughts. While many countries in the Horn of Africa, southern and North-West Africa continued to suffer exceptional multi-year drought, other countries experienced extreme precipitation events in 2023, leading to flooding with significant casualties. These extreme events led to devastating impacts on communities, with serious economic implications.”
Much of the continent has seen more of the same since 2023, with economic disruptions from extreme weather contributing to conflicts over freshwater, farming, fisheries and forestry across the continent. African countries continue to experience 2 to 5% average annual declines in GDP, with national budgets diverted to address climate extremes and adaptation amounting to between US$30 and 50 billion.
Extreme heat, drought, and changes to precipitation patterns have facilitated vector-borne diseases. In some areas, extreme heat is causing insects to move to more temperate latitudes or higher elevations. Diseases include malaria, dengue, chikungunya, schistosomiasis and trypanosomiasis. Climate change is contributing to increased outbreaks, many in places where they never occurred before.
The spread of these tropical diseases strains health infrastructures and financial resources. Mortality levels are expected to increase. A case in point is dengue, spread by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Today, dengue exists in 15% of Africa. By 2050, the area is expected to grow to between 20 to 25%. By 2070, it will be endemic in over 40 to 55% of the continent.
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