The accumulated data collected and analyzed by scientists around the world.
]]>What is “irrefutable”?
]]>Mankind’s hill of beans – an interesting expression for accumulating atmospheric CO2. Explanation of Arctic amplification may have more than one cause but the current trend appears irrefutable.
]]>“Since satellite records started in 1958,…”
Please, enlighten us … what satellite records start in 1958?
“… High Arctic temperatures have been rising due to GHGs being dumped into the bio-sphere”
Please, show us exactly how … or even approximately how … GHGs being dumped into the bio-sphere have caused anything at all… anything.
I’m kinda hung up on that phrase, …due to… Ya know, like cause and effect … so, show us how temperatures … anywhere … have been rising due to GHGs. Oh, and show your work.
‘Actual High Arctic temperatures WITHOUT GHG effects are lower than the so-called “average” temperature line.’
What, are you witnessing a second earth, without GHG effects? Where is this doppelgänger earth? …where are these actual High Arctic temperatures recorded?
“… end of 2015 into 2016, High Arctic temperatures never were “average” for 150 straight days. For 100 straight days in that period, temperatures were ALWAYS over 3degC over “average”(no misprint) & sometimes as high as 11degC over “average”.” You’re talking about WEATHER not climate.
Where might we find this “so called average temperature line”?
“…excess AGW energy from the south, flows into the Arctic, invigorating the High Arctic Berserker …”
…what is AGW energy? How does this energy “flow”
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ad0190e26ab1ac822a1c93d7d30ddf7d4196579816f6eed82390331120b245f.jpg
Up to August of this year … 2016 … you can see the temperature spikes of the past are not replicated in the data, currently …
Below, you can see Polyakov 2002, clearly showing that the Arctic was warmer in the 1940s era, before Mannkind’s CO2 emissions amounted to more than a hill of beans.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7409ac03f85f69395bf17e40bd01b5c6a5525ea01d721c2e3468883275e7901b.jpg
Cold spells over North America are linked to a very zonal and intense Jet Stream, which is preceded by a negative NAO and a positive PNA.
Messori, Gabriele, Rodrigo Caballero, and Marco Gaetan 2016. “On Cold Spells in North America and Storminess in Western Europe.” Geophysical Research Letters
http://climdyn.misu.su.se/publications/pdf/messori.etal.2016.cold.events.pdf
]]>Many oceanic & wind cycles exceed 60 years, some, 100 years. We can begin to see correlations … with natural variation.
Yang, Lau & Kim 2002: ”Indeed, our understanding of the [East Asian Jet Stream] and its climate linkage is largely limited to the knowledge provided by early studies, which are always restricted by the lack of long-recorded observations.”
Yang, Song, K. M. Lau, and K. M. Kim 2002. “Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies.” Journal of Climate
Jacques 2011: ”The Pacific North American mode (PNA) is one of the most prominent modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981). The PNA pattern is associated with strong fluctuations in the strength and location of the East Asian jet stream.”
Woollings, Hannachi, & Hoskins 2010: “Diagnostics of the latitude and speed of the eddy-driven jet stream are compared with conventional diagnostics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. This shows that the NAO and the EA both describe combined changes in the latitude and speed of the jet stream. It is therefore necessary, but not always sufficient, to consider both the NAO and the EA in identifying changes in the jet stream.”
Woollings, Tim, Abdel Hannachi, and Brian Hoskins 2010. “Variability of the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet stream.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Bucha 1998 supported geomagnetic (sun-based) variations in the jet stream: ”In the hypothesis proposed here for explaining Sun-weather relations, downward winds following the geomagnetic storm onset are generated in the polar cap of the thermosphere and penetrate to the stratosphere and troposphere, where the atmospheric response can be observed as a sudden increase of pressure and temperature. … accelerated and strong eastward winds participate in the intensification of the northern jet stream and … It is shown that at a time of low geomagnetic activity planetary waves with large amplitudes prevail in the northern hemisphere … On the other hand, at a time of high geomagnetic activity, an intensification of the winds can be observed not only in the thermosphere but also in the troposphere. A strong northern jet stream participates in the …These relations are clearly detectable not only in monthly averages of the pressure and temperature distribution but also in the daily variations of atmospheric circulation. The results enable us to test a causal link of the Sun-weather processes, to explain strong interannual climate and weather changes in several key regions of the northern hemisphere, mainly in winter, and to study possible causes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.”
Bucha, Václav 1998. “Geomagnetic forcing of changes in climate and in the atmospheric circulation.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
]]>It is absolutely true that the jet stream was a recent discovery but we have collected weather observations over North America for more than a century and a half and jet stream data for more than fifty years and can begin to see correlations.
]]>Nobody knew of the “jet stream” prior to World War II. American B29 bombers discovered it. With such a short record, nothing can be said about “abnormal”.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/The-Discovery-of-the-Jet-Stream.htm
Reid Bryson was one of the first to advise the U.S. military that bombers flying to Japan might encounter strong head winds.
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