Hi Allen,

Although synthetic crude may produce (and I am not sure this is accurate since the literature generally concurs that emissions from oil sands versus conventional oil are 12% greater) less carbon emissions when burned than light crude, to suggest that the oil sands can help in our conversion to a natural gas alternative to coal and oil seems ludicrous. First of all, you are not taking into account the production process which is a massive carbon polluter even as intensity reduction technologies are introduced.

And as for overpopulation, tell me how you would implement population control. Are you going to get a China one child policy agreed to by every nation. Consider Russia where the population is expected to decline by almost 40% by 2050 because of rampant alcoholism. And then consider Africa and other Developing World areas where populations are surging (UN suggests population will double in these areas from 900 million to 1.8 billion by 2050). So what would you suggest – impose a universal policy or a selective policy. Tell Africans and other parts of the Developing World, they cannot reproduce “for their own good.” The latest UN stats project a range of population between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050. This variable is built on a model that says fertile women will have 0.5 more or fewer children. India’s population will surpass China’s by 2028. Will a world body impose birth restrictions on a democratic India? Nigeria’s population will exceed the U.S. by 2050 and will rival China by 2100. Will a world body enforce birth control on that West African country? The Developed World will maintain a steady state population of around 1.3 billion. That includes Europe and Anglo-North America. And to boot, life expectancy will be extended with lifespans globally exceeded 80 years by 2100. Average life expectancy in the Developed World will be 90 by then and in the Developing World 80. How will you impose population control – by culling the elderly?

Realistically, there needs to be a balance to the equation of energy use and population. Renewables make it possible to address the carbon issue. Urbanization will be the natural deterrent to Developing World population growth as it has been in the Developed World.

As for my Canadian government, I don’t know where you reside, but living in this country is like being in a bubble. We have abundant water, an endless supply of natural resources, a low population, and a government that chooses to be blind to our global responsibility.

And j’accuse the government of Stephen Harper of failing in its international obligations to address Canada’s contribution to GHGs and climate change”.

Sure, the Canadian Government is guilty of all that and more. But you are a mature student of the world’s sad history of democracy from ancient Athens’ Pericles to present times. Placing the blame for what seems fraudulent environmental indifference on the present particular group of in-power Canadian politicos doesn’t seem very even-handed. The great prize of the tar-sands wealth will certainly attract great herds of fraudulent politico swill-hogs from remote places. There will always be more swill-hogs than places at the public slop-trough. Here are some facts you didn’t mention:

The earth is very overpopulated.

That is because the global economy is temporarily sufficiently productive to support the overpopulation.

The scale of global productivity is directly related to combustion of fossil fuel; mainly coal, petroleum, and natural gas.

We need no further scientific studies to know coal combustion contributes more atmospheric carbon per unit of heat than petroleum, and that petroleum combustion contributes more atmospheric carbon per unit of heat than natural gas, which is the lowest carbon emitter we have in great abundance.

Replacing petroleum liquids transportation fuel with natural gas liquids would obviously reduce carbon emissions per unit of transportation, and for some decades the world could continue to sustain its present overpopulation levels by adding transportation fuel carbon to the atmosphere at lower rates.

The only durable solution to atmospheric carbon build-up is drastic population reduction, but the world refuses to adopt that perspective on the problem. Instead it wants to talk about windmills, solar cells, geothermal, bio-fuels, etc, all of which in the aggregate will fail to supply the additional energy demands of even the developing world, but which does pump more slop into the politicos’ hog-trough.

The world economy is going to satisfy its ever-growing demand for liquid hydrocarbon transportation fuel from somewhere, even if Canada’s tar sands didn’t exist. We are living on an overpopulated planet named Earth, not on a divinely moderated celestial kingdom of Heaven. Hence, we will do somewhat less bad with the global GHG problem if we strive to replace petroleum with natural gas. That’s where the tar sands make a positive contribution. The tar sands do not supply fuel. They supply tar. Tar is not a liquid fuel. Neither is natural gas. But in the great regional environmental insult of Athabaska tar-sand production, we can find a great global “benefit.” The tar acts as a liquefying agent for natural gas. The tar sand “upgrading” process combines the light hydrogen-rich methane molecule with the heavy hydrogen-poor tar molecule, and produces a hydrogen-rich low-viscosity liquid motor fuel, that in practical effect yields a significant percentage of its combustion heat from the natural gas supplied in the “upgrading” process. The tar-sand fuel is synthetic petroleum. When tar-sand fuel is burned it adds less carbon to the atmosphere than burning natural petroleum.

Shell’s giant Pearl plant in Qatar makes a direct conversion of the region’s natural gas into low-sulfur diesel fuel, but natural gas combustion drives the whole process. (In Qatar the natural gas is nearly free and inexhaustible) Shell is not revealing all the pertinent technical details, but in the balance I suspect tar-sand “upgrading” (methane hydrogenation of tar) pumps less carbon into the atmosphere per unit of liquid fuel produced than Shell’s Pearl plant. Synthetic fuel production will exhaust the lower-cost tar-sand reserves long before natural gas reserves run out. Then you can expect common synfuel processes to consist of “upgrading” coal into liquid by combining natural gas with coal. As long as the tar-sand reserves last, coal synfuel won’t be cost competitive.

As far into the future as anyone can plausibly see, you can expect any Canadian Government, regardless of names and faces, to increasingly drive the economy in the direction of timber, minerals, and hydrocarbon fuels.

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