Nowhere in the world more than in the Middle East did we see the failure of 20th century constructs, from the colonial paternalistic accommodation created at the end of World War One to Iraq in 2003 and the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict. Africa’s post-colonial settlement came a close second to the mess of the Middle East. The wreck of European colonialism has come with a heavy cost still being borne in the 21st century.

The trend towards collectivism in Europe has recently altered from seeking closer union to nations going their own way. Brexit is but one manifestation of this. Other European populist movements represent a growing belief that isolating nations and cultures from each other will produce better outcomes. In the United States, a populist President-elect, presents a similar reflection in this growing belief that through isolation solutions to economic and social problems can be achieved.

Add to this turmoil comes climate change, the elephant in the room. Climate change when added to governments in turmoil is a recipe for disaster. In November of 2015 when 195 nations agreed collectively to limit global warming to a target 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) warmer by the end of the 21st century, I doubt that any among them considered the effect and impact on their resolve from the turmoil of 2016. The drift to populism may kill the collective will to arrest global warming. And what that will do is turn climate change into a potent force in driving further political destabilization around the planet.

One of the little understood facts about the movement of people from the Middle East and Africa to Europe these last few years is the role climate change has played. The Syrian conflict has climate change written all over it. So does the conflict in Libya. And it is also so with Israel and Palestine. If you study Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs and look at the majority population in these conflict zones, you recognize quickly that populations are in turmoil over their future survival.

Maybe because I live in Canada, a federal state that was constructed over a 150-year history to reflect common and parochial needs, I can see governance solutions that can help much of the planet’s population address 21st century challenges. Canada is far from a perfect union. Our constitution was founded when the country was predominantly rural, agrarian or focused on resource extraction. Today close to 90% of Canadians live in urban centres and our asymmetric federalism functions despite our archaic constitutional roots. And it is this asymmetry that represents a model that can be adopted to help stressed areas of the planet confront the 21st century challenges they face collectively.

The redrawing of Middle East borders is often cited as a solution to that region’s many problems. After all, the borders of the post-World War One settlement were arbitrary and didn’t reflect cultural, tribal and ethnic identities. But redrawing borders is more than likely to create the same insanity that post-World War One created in Europe, laying the foundation for a Second World War. So why not apply the asymmetric federalism model? A decentralized Iraq, a decentralized Syria, a federation containing Israel, Palestine and Jordan, constructing these entities could end hostilities and bring about economic revitalization. In sub-Saharan Africa where political boundaries are unrepresentative of the tribal and ethnic diversity of the continent, asymmetric federalism would be more inclusive to populations within current political boundaries.

This willingness to alter current forms of governance will only work in the face of a common enemy. Science fiction writers often speculate that contact with an intelligent alien species is the stimulus for humanity uniting to meet the challenge of such an event. But the more common enemy at home right now is global warming and if ever there was a driver to unite us while still honouring what differentiates us, it is the peril that climate change represents. Asymmetric federal governing structures work. Applying this form of governance to those areas of the planet where today we continue to see relentless, unending conflict, could prove to be one of the 21st century’s great success stories.

The year 2015 alone produced a 3 parts per million (ppm) increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Those paleo climatologists will tell you this is remarkable. Why? Because from the end of the most recent Ice Age to the advent of the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2 remained around 278 ppm. With no other physical changes that could account for a CO2 rise, that number has now reached on average 400 ppm.

Director of NOAA’s Global Monitoring Division, Jim Butler, states, “We’re dialing up Earth’s thermostat in a way that will lock more heat into the ocean and atmosphere for thousands of years.” The numbers quoted in the annual report are not based on climate modeling. They are the real deal. Butler states, “these are precise and accurate measurements, and they tell us about how humans are changing the balance of heat in the Earth system.”

From 2014 to 2015 the annual greenhouse gas increases equaled 1.8% relative to 1990 levels. This has been a steady state rate of increase since about 1950. That rate includes more than CO2 which contributes more than 82% of all human generated greenhouse gases. The rest come from non-CO2 greenhouse gases which include methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and 15 minor halogenated gases. Halogenated gases are the chlorofluorocarbons that were first identified as ozone depleting threats leading to the first cap and trade agreement to minimize these greenhouse gases.

It should be noted that of the identified greenhouse gases that contribute 96% of the atmospheric warming, CO2 and N2O have continued to grow at a pretty steady state. CH4 on the other hand has seen a jump from 2007 to 2015 after remaining constant from 1999 to 2006. That jump can be attributed to a number of causes, one of which is fracking, and the other, melting of permafrost.

For those who question NOAA data, it is gathered from atmospheric observation sites around the world with precise accuracy. There is very little uncertainty in its reporting. So if you are a climate change skeptic who believes that humans have nothing to do with global warming, you need to recognize that the Earth is undergoing an unprecedented change in a rather short period of time because the data doesn’t lie. And you also need to recognize that at current rates of increase of 1.8% per year the median atmospheric temperature of our planet is headed not for a 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) increase, but one that will easily exceed 3 Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) by 2050.

Without understating the implications of a world warmer by 3 Celsius let me point out a headline that appeared today. In Phalodi, a town in Rajasthan, in western India, a new record high temperature was recorded, 51 Celsius (123.8 Fahrenheit). The town has experienced a heat wave that has exceeded 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) for weeks. Deadly heat waves like this have become common in India. The conditions have made it difficult for citizens going about daily activities.

And consider the impact of rising temperatures in another hot spot on the planet, the Middle East and North Africa. Average temperatures have been climbing with extreme heat days doubling since 1970. Today the number is 16 days. By mid century the number will be 80. And by the end of the century it will rise to 118. Today 500 million people live in the area that will be affected. With temperature trends showing this inevitable outcome it means entire sections of this region will become uninhabitable. Now these predictions come from 26 different climate models that coincidentally project similar outcomes. That’s a frightening fact that even the most skeptical climate change deniers would have trouble reconciling. I can tell you that the pilgrims seen in the picture below on the road to Mina, near Mecca in Saudi Arabia, can attest to the change and umbrellas alone may not shield them from the future heat.