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]]>Price – In terms of price anxiety, BYD currently manufactures eight different brand models as well as EVs for three other companies. The Dolphin hatchback comes in as low as $30,000 US. The Seal and Tang are almost double in price and are considered high-end luxury EVs. The Sealion EV which BYD builds to meet South Asian and Indian markets is priced lower than the Dolphin.
Compare BYD pricing to Tesla and the latter isn’t competitive. A Tesla Model 3 has a starting price of $40,000; the Y models begin at $46,000; the S models at $85,000; the X models at $95,000; and Cybertrucks at between $50,000 and $82,000.
Range – In terms of driving range BYD and Tesla produce comparable data with the latter’s extended-range models producing better performance than any BYD EV. Both manufacturers can deliver an EV capable of travelling 400 kilometres (approximately 250 miles) per charge.
Charge Rate – The latest battery from BYD, the Super-E, has a 1,000 Kilowatt (kW) charging speed compared to Tesla’s Supercharger at 500 kW. Two of BYD’s higher-priced EV models, the Han L and Tang L, priced at around $37,000 will feature the new battery.
BYD calls its Super-E a flash charge battery capable of giving its EV models enough power when plugged in for 5 minutes to achieve a drive range of 400 kilometres. Five minutes is about the same amount of time it can take to gas up an internal combustion engine-powered car.
Charge Network – Older BYD models use publicly accessible charging stations that meet the Combined Charging System (CCS) standard which is readily available in and outside China. For the Super-E Han and Tang models, BYD plans to install 4,000 new charge stations in China representing a significant expansion of its existing network and likely putting some strain on the country’s power grid. Considering the company’s rate of growth in terms of the number of models built and shipped, BYD needs to grow its charging infrastructure beyond China quickly.
Currently, several BYD models sold in Australia are using the Tesla charging network. In some cases, a hardware upgrade is needed, but BYD EV owners can use the Tesla app to setup an account and pay the per kW charge and monthly subscription.
For Europe and North America not including Mexico, the Super-E-powered EV models need BYD to create the charging station network. BYD already has started deploying chargers in Mexico where its EV models are sold.
In terms of a charge station network, Tesla is well ahead of BYD representing the former’s biggest advantage. Tesla has a charge infrastructure featuring 7,000 Supercharger sites featuring 65,800 individual connectors. The question is, how much longer will Tesla continue to have this one advantage.
A Horse Race – In 2024, EV sales from BYD and Tesla were neck and neck with Tesla at 1.789 million versus BYD at 1.76 million vehicles. BYD also makes plug-in hybrid vehicles and in 2024 the total new energy vehicle numbers shipped reached 4.27 million.
Technology Comparisons – Engineers looking at the two EV leaders’ technologies side by side believe that BYD will outperform Tesla going forward. They describe BYD’s approach as effective, safer, and cheaper. In one review it states, “BYD has taken the crown, efficiency proves more useful than costly innovations. Perhaps this ‘wake-up call’ to Tesla will help it rethink its philosophy.” But for now, Tesla in battery technology and materials trails the Chinese EV manufacturer and the gap is widening and is not helped by Elon Musk’s negatively impacting his brand by association with the Donald Trump presidency.
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]]>Where I live in Oakville, Ontario, a Ford Motor Company town, Tesla EVs can be seen in driveways and the parking lots of condominiums. In my building, I have counted at least a dozen along with rival company EVs. Our building has public charge ports in our retail parking space as well as dedicated EV parking that costs tenants a premium. A few blocks away there is EV charge on-street parking, and plazas nearby have parking spaces that feature charge ports. So the EV revolution is very much in full swing in my neck of the woods.
Before proceeding I must confess that I don’t drive an EV. I drive a hybrid gas-and-electric powered vehicle. I may consider an EV in the future but the lack of significant public and private charging infrastructure and sticker price have kept me away. The EVs that I can choose from are made in North America, Korea, Japan and Europe. They come with sticker shock when compared to many gasoline and diesel-powered models.
Enter China, the most significant producer of EVs today. Whether this is because of the country’s manufacturing heft and scale, or because it has cornered the battery market, Chinese companies are challenging EV manufacturers from elsewhere and are producing vehicles that cost far less while offering advanced features.
The defensive response by North America has involved placing a high blocking tariff on lower-priced Chinese EVs. The only exception in the U.S. appears to be made-in-China Teslas that come in without a 100% tariff surcharge. In Canada, Teslas manufactured in China are being treated the same as all other Chinese-made EVs. The European Union (EU) has also imposed blocking tariffs of between 17.4% to 37.6%, along with a 10% duty on all Chinese EV imports. In Europe, Teslas manufactured in China that faced a 20.8% blocking tariff saw it reduced to 9% in the last month.
In defence of the goal to reduce humanity’s carbon footprint to mitigate climate change, the move to restrict cheaper EVs from being made available to the masses seems outrageous. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Global EV Outlook notes that emissions avoided by using EVs rather than internal combustion engine transportation would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions or their equivalent by over 2 Gigatons by 2035. That reduction would come with multiple benefits: lessening the rise in global atmospheric temperatures and sea levels, improving air quality, and the health of us and all life on the planet.
EVs are environmental and climate change difference-makers. They produce 50% lower emissions from materials, build and operational requirements. When charged using renewable sources their emission contributions fall even further. So why not encourage the adoption of EVs with cheaper ones made in China to speed up the energy transition from fossil fuels to electricity? What is the concern? Is it about quality, is it xenophobia, or is this a pure made-in-America, Canada, or Europe support policy?
One thing is abundantly clear. China’s EV market is rolling into high gear. In its first four months in 2024, BYD, China’s premier EV builder sold more than 434,000 cars. It now outproduces and outsells Tesla both in the Chinese market and globally.
Why this is happening is simple: BYD is producing quality products with starting pricing for four EV models between US $26,250 and $33,154. Compare the pricing to entry-level Tesla Model 3s that cost US $40,630 and with options $54,630. Compare pricing to Tesla’s Model Y which starts at US $43,900, the S at $76,630 or the X at $81,630.
BYD isn’t alone. China will likely still see 7 EV manufacturers of note in the market by this year’s end. One of these is Xpeng which just launched an entry-level EV with advanced self-driving features. Called the Mona M03, its starting US price is $21,700. An hour after its launch Xpeng had already received more than 10,000 orders. None of the orders came from European or North American buyers.
With a desire to decarbonize transportation, when EVs first arrived, governments in the Global North offered rebates to encourage consumers to switch from gas and diesel-powered transportation. Policies in the US and Canada at the federal level have included rebates for purchasers and leasing of select model EVs. The US offer in 2024 is $7,500. In Canada, it is CDN $5,000 (approximately US $3,700).
American states and Canadian provinces are also in the rebate game. For example, California provides an additional rebate over the federal one amounting to US $3,000 or more depending on the vehicle model. British Columbia offers EV purchases CDN $4,000 over the federal $5,000.
No Chinese models are eligible. Even after applying the rebates, however, Chinese EVs are still cheaper.
Why are Chinese EVs cheaper? A recent article in the L.A. Times reports that Chinese government subsidies provided the initial support for companies that were already producing and supplying lithium-ion batteries to world markets. China had access to the critical mineral resources needed to make these batteries. It was able to lower battery production costs representing about one-third of an EV’s total manufactured cost.
The result states the L.A. Times article is a country that has become a battery-making behemoth with almost every EV today incorporating a made-in-China battery. This is making North American and European car makers uncompetitive.
Hence blocking tariffs have been instituted to save domestic manufacturers from abandoning the EV market. Some are already cutting back on plans. GM, Ford and Stellantis have all delayed new EV model production using the excuse of a drop in consumer demand reflected in declining existing model sales.
The truth, however, is much more about having arrived in the EV market late except for Tesla, and of having not built a manufacturing infrastructure and supply chain covering the full range from material sourcing to production. North America and Europe learned to rely on rare earths, cobalt, lithium and other strategic minerals sourced on the cheap from non-native sources. China has benefited.
Keeping Chinese EVs off North American and European roads will not help to decarbonize global transportation in our efforts to mitigate climate change. Instead, it will temporarily allow a few North American and European manufacturers to shelter behind government shields to retain their businesses and profits while the world continues to heat up.
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]]>Three companies are among the leaders in paving the way to this disrupted future. They are Tesla, Waymo, and Zoox (Amazon).
Tesla’s latest self-driving software contains AI that learns autonomously by studying the behaviour of human drivers. States Dhaval Schroff, a Tesla engineer, “It’s like ChatGPT, but for cars.” Using neural networks, the self-driving software simulates billions of driving scenarios.
Historically, Tesla’s Autopilot used a rules-based approach, a structure where specific situations triggered structured responses. Examples included how to respond to lane markings, pedestrian movements, other vehicles, traffic signals, construction signs, speed limit indicators and more. Each of these was given programmed responses.
The new Autopilot doesn’t follow these codified responses to programmed scenarios. Instead, it has learned by watching real-life examples of human drivers. As a result, Tesla is using a new metric to measure autonomy success. It is “miles driven without human intervention.”
The goal is to have the Autopilot exceed human driver responses. To achieve this, Tesla used a neural network to help the Autopilot teach itself. It approached autonomy with a blank slate. It had no definition for what is a car, bicycle, pedestrian, or any other driving object. Instead, it learned by watching human drivers deal with billions of real-world situations. It taught itself to read signs. It learned the objects of the road and what drivers encounter. It had a library containing data from nearly 2 million Tesla electric vehicles. This treasure trove of real-world examples was its training wheels. How far away is Tesla from launching this latest iteration of autonomy? Currently, it is testing 5,000 vehicles using the new AI Autopilot.
Waymo began in 2009 as a Google internal experiment. From the start, its goal was to create robotaxis. It builds into vehicles, cameras, Lidar laser technology, real-time sensor data, and custom maps to help visualize the world. Its onboard systems can process billions of bits of data in real time. Its vehicles have been tested, having travelled over 19.3 million kilometres (12 million miles) in real-world and simulated environments.
In August 2023, Waymo launched driverless robotaxi services in San Francisco. The Waymo One app allows pedestrians to book a ride much the way they would call up an Uber. The San Francisco fleet of 250 outfitted Jaguars features high-tech sensors and cameras. Fares range from $18 to $21 U.S., on par with other ride-hailing services.
In March 2024, Waymo received approval to extend its service to a larger area of San Francisco and to Los Angeles where it is operating 50 vehicles in the heart of downtown and Santa Monica. Currently, Waymo in L.A. is restricted to regular streets. Its vehicles cannot drive to the airport or along the many Los Angeles freeways that crisscross the city. That soon will come.
When Amazon decided to get into the autonomous vehicle market it bought Zoox in 2020, a six-year-old company focused on making mobility-as-a-service in cities a reality. You can see a picture of a Zoox robotaxi at the beginning of this article and no doubt you noticed that it doesn’t resemble any vehicle you have ever driven. That’s because Zoox is a reinvention of the car.
Zoox vehicles were never intended to have a driver. They are designed for full autonomy in dense, urban environments. Like Waymo they feature cameras, radar, Lidar and onboard sensors. But unlike Waymo they are unconventional in how they operate with features like bi-directional driving and four-wheel steering.
If I were placing bets on what robotaxis will look like as we move from car ownership to mobility-as-a-service, I would put my money on Zoox-type designs dominating the future of the automobile.
Consider how often you get into your car. On average, we use our vehicles 5% of the time. The rest of the day they stay parked on driveways or in parking lots. Parking lots occupy land that can be repurposed. Donald Shoup, an urban planning professor at UCLA notes that in the United States with its 2 billion parking spots, “the area of parking per car is…larger than the area of housing per human.”
The Uber of the future is the robotaxi, a mobility-as-a-service that provides point-to-point transportation. It is more personal than a bus, subway or train. As mobility-as-a-service becomes more common, fewer vehicles will drive on urban streets. Once people get used to the efficiency of being chauffeured this way the need for personal vehicles will diminish. That will mean enormous cost savings per household yielding greater disposable family income. It means the house footprint will change with no need for a parking pad or garage (the latter at least not for a car).
In-service feature-rich point-to-point robotaxis will replace multiple vehicles on the roads. With fewer vehicles, it means our rush hours, where parkways look more like parking lots, will become a thing of the past.
For vehicle manufacturers, this massive disruption to their business models will cause many to fail as the ratio of cars per person will decline. That means fewer sales, fewer models, smaller production lines, and fewer jobs in the industry.
Some vehicle manufacturers recognize the coming mobility-as-a-service revolution. General Motors and Audi have considered becoming owners of the cars they build, offering them as robotaxi fleets. Other manufacturers will likely follow.
What are the implications for modern economies built around automobile manufacturing? North America represents the prime example. In 2022, the automotive industry produced 14.8 million vehicles and employed 3.3 million not including those in the supply chain providing materials and services. A robotaxi future won’t need 14.8 million vehicles. Manufacturers won’t need 3.3 million workers.
Mobility-as-a-service through robotaxis will profoundly impact lives as the 21st century unfolds. There are many positives. Our environment will be cleaner. Our air will be more breathable. We will see less of an urban heat island effect in our cities. With fewer cars on the road, we will mitigate climate change. The negatives will be the economic disruptions to manufacturers and workers for which current governments and society appear unprepared.
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]]>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, describes Optimus as the most advanced humanoid robot on the planet with built-in artificial intelligence. He states:
“I don’t think there’s anyone even close to Tesla on solving real-world AI. It’s not that helpful to have a humanoid robot if you have to program every action. It needs to be able to walk around autonomously and solve tasks. You should be able to instruct it in simple things, by showing visually what the robot needs to do, or just telling it what to do. That’s the key advantage that we have.”
Musk believes that future versions of Optimus will serve as home companions and also be used in industry. Optimus will one day help build Tesla automobiles.
Optimus navigates and moves using the same autopilot software that is in Tesla automobiles. Musk is so optimistic about Optimus that in his presentation to shareholders, he stated:
“My prediction is that the majority of Tesla’s long-term value will be Optimus. And I am very confident in that prediction.”
The company is stating that Optimus will become available within five years and Musk predicts that a ratio of robots to people will eventually exceed 1 to 1 in favour of the former.
Optimus specifications:
Valkyrie is a humanoid robot designed to work as a remote mobile caretaker for use in space, on the Moon, and in the future on Mars. Designed by NASA’s Johnson Space Center and first revealed as Robonaut 2 to the public in 2010, it was legless when deployed to the ISS in 2012 where it performed menial tasks.
The current version of Valkyrie (Robonaut 5) specifications:
Until recently, Valkyrie has been plagued by poor performance largely because it has been over-engineered to try and serve multiple roles. The test in Australia will help iron out any existing deficiencies as NASA develops remote operating capabilities that will translate well to operating on the Moon, Mars, and uncrewed space stations and platforms.
Shaun Azimi, who leads the robotics team at the Johnson Space Center recently told The Robot Report that Valkyrie has new capabilities which will serve in the upcoming Artemis Program. He stated:
“We are pleased to be starting the next phase of development and testing of advanced robotic systems that have the potential to positively impact life on Earth by allowing safer operations in hazardous environments. These demonstrations will evaluate the current potential of advanced robots to extend the reach of humans and help humanity explore and work safely anywhere.”
Clearly, Valkyrie is not aimed at the same market as Optimus. It exhibits all the hallmarks of a NASA-engineered project. Hence the $2 million per unit price tag. Optimus, on the other hand, is being designed for mass production based on the same principles as its electric vehicle Tesla cousins.
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]]>This is the second solar vehicle the Eindhoven group has invented. The first was a family car called Stella Lux. This one has been given the name Stella Vita. As you can see from the picture above, the vehicle has aerodynamic lines. On a sunny day, its range is 730 kilometres (450 miles) if you don’t use any of its many amenities inside.
When parked the roof slides up and two solar panel additions extend out on either side increasing the solar capacity to 17.5 square metres (188 square feet), not only providing power, but also a bit of shade. You can also plug the vehicle into a charging station in the event of a cloudy day. To fill the battery storage to capacity takes the solar panels about two to three days.
The interior comes with a bed, fridge, toilet, couch, and cooktop. There are charge ports for smartphones. tablets, and laptop computers. The onboard information system keeps the driver apprised of his or her energy use.
To demonstrate the technology the team is sending a driver south on a 3,000-kilometre trek that will last for four weeks with stops at universities and events along the way to show off.
The pursuit of solar-powered vehicles is ongoing and not just confined to university and polytechnical institute campuses. The limitations have always been recharging rates and range. But integrating photovoltaics is becoming more attractive to mainstream vehicle manufacturers and new startups. A number of companies are developing prototypes. These include startups like Squad Mobility, Stella Ersa, Aptera Motors, Atlis Motor Vehicles, Fisker, Light Year, and Sono. And then there are the better-known mainstream contenders like Hyundai, Toyota, and Tesla.
Hyundai’s solar car uses a roof system of solar cells to generate electricity. But it is a hybrid so the solar aspect plays only a supporting role.
Toyota’s entry is a Prius with 34% of its surfaces covered by 0.03 millimetre-thick cells. Compared to the average of 20% for other solar vehicle contenders, Toyota claims that its car will be able to continuously run without ever requiring a plug-in recharge.
Tesla is building its all-electric battery-powered Cybertruck with a solar panel option that can extend operational range each day by up to 24 kilometres (15 miles).
So Stella Vita is far from being alone in carving out a place in the solar car race. According to members of the Solar Team Eindhoven, they expect vehicles powered by the sun to be a reality before the end of the decade. But, for now, if you are in Southern Spain in the next few weeks you may be able to see what the future will bring, a self-sustaining tiny solar house on wheels.
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]]>In the latest posting, July 24, 2012, Andrea Rossi, the developer of the energy catalyzer cold fusion technology he calls E-Cat, claims he will deliver the first commercial 1 Megawatt e-Cat plant this year. He also indicated that a performance report showing that E-Cat is stable in temperatures over 1,000 Celsius will be released in a couple of months. This isn’t the first time that Rossi has promised delivery. Nor is it the first time that he has promised to release a report on the technology.
If you are unfamiliar with LENR and the E-Cat in particular, the technology relies on a chemical reaction that transmutes two elements into another releasing energy in the form of heat. In the case of E-Cat the elements are powdered nickel infused with hydrogen transmuting into copper. The amount of energy released is claimed to be 100 times the energy input. Rossi reports he can get enough heat from E-Cat cold fusion to power up steam turbines for electricity generation. Ultimately he hopes to directly generate energy from his E-Cats without a turbine. Well we’ll see!
Not to be outdone, a Rossi competitor, in fact a breakaway company called Defkalion is building its own LENR and joining up with a Swiss start up to deliver a car with a LENR on board. The first generation of iCar, the name the company has chosen, will use a Tesla Model S. The LENR is the Hyperion Series B. The developers of the technology claim the Hyperion will generate 10 to 45 Kilowatts of thermal energy. To produce 45 Kilowatts the LENR will consume only 300 watts. The iCar will have a single charge range of 36,000 kilometers (22,000 miles). The power storage of a Hyperion LENR is estimated to be 400 times the amount stored in conventional lithium-ion battery packs currently used by Tesla.
After successfully demonstrating the first generation iCar, plans are in the works to launch a second generation vehicle with an on board LENR capable of powering a car for 140,000 kilometers (87,000 miles) between recharges.
Again I ask the question, is all this hype going to actually produce something real? If so, then we will witness an energy revolution. If not, we can always remember P.T. Barnum’s quote, “The bigger the humbug, the better people will like it.” And this is one humdinger of a story right now.
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