They were asked to describe what science and technology trends in a variety of fields would dominate in the year 2052. The magazine readership chosen was deliberate because these publications are widely read by those who are active in their respective fields. They are researchers, builders, and business executives. Many have graduate and post-graduate degrees. The business readers were largely executives of companies benefiting from technology to help them succeed in their respective sectors.
So how did these groups differ in their view of what lies ahead?
Futurists saw the areas most impacted by 2052 to be in the following fields in descending order: robotics, biotechnology, and energy.
Readers of Science ordered the same three fields with biotechnology first, energy second, and robotics last.
Readers of Nature put biotechnology first, IT and software second, and energy third.
And readers of the Harvard Business Review put renewable energy first, agriculture and food second, and cancer therapies third.
In addition, all groups saw the next 35 years to experience breakthroughs in biomedicine, computer science, and materials science.
Futurists and business people cited artificial intelligence (AI) followed by runner-ups in healthcare, advanced analytics for big data, robotics, energy technologies, synthetic biology, and genetic engineering.
The business group also had high expectations for space travel, while the scientists expressed greatest confidence in AI and biotechnology.
All the groups saw technological convergence a dominant force for change whether in biomedicine, robotics, analytics, or AI.
The readers of Harvard Business Review were asked about social versus business impacts from advances in technology. They cited for both, food for the world, the curing of cancer, and reversing climate change. Food for the world was fourth on their list, and climate change reversal was fifth. Business readers added renewable energy and a secure Internet. Those citing the social over business technological advances included pandemic preparedness and genetic modification of humans.
For Harvard Business Review readers they cited:
Futurists, scientists, and technologists cited:
Whether futurists, scientists, technologists, or business people, none saw the free market as capable of effectively dealing with the social, environmental and technology issues without government involvement. Seen as a priority was a renewed effort to educate humanity in the fields of science, technology, engineering, arts, and mathematics to produce those with both technical and creative skills needed for a sustainable future.
The survey, conducted in October involving 3,240 adults (18+) included a randomly selected audience and weighted the population distribution across the country based on 2010 census data.
Here are the top nine prognostications by Americans based on the survey.
Besides those who believe teleportation will exist in 2067, much of what is being predicted is well on its way to happening well before that date.
For example, WiFi is more than likely to be succeeded by other telecommunication advancements. LiFi, a technology that uses the spectrum of visible light, may within a decade supplant WiFi.
And self-driving cars are likely to be on urban streets within five years if not sooner based on the technological advancements in lidar, radar, sensors, and artificial intelligence being demonstrated by a number of companies today. By 2067 we more than likely will experience a far greater range of transportation choices that will take us out of cars. After all, companies are already queuing up to deliver flying cars to the public in the next couple of years.
As for cancer, CRISPR/Cas9, and nanomedicine are giving us a very different picture of how humans will stay healthy in the very near future. By 2067 I suspect we will have cured “aging,” the reason why most cancers occur in our species.
The 43% who think we will be using 100% renewable energy is an interesting result considering the present mindset of the American federal government with its emphasis on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. It is more than likely that a very small percentage of the power we humans will continue to consume will come from net-zero emission natural gas facilities that will harvest the greenhouse gases created for use in industrial processes where the carbon content will become permanently recycled or sequestered.
On the humanlike robot prediction, I would ask those 36% to look at what already exists in terms of robots that look like us. I don’t think this is 50 years in our future. It’s right now. One humanlike robot that appeared as a female was just made a citizen of Saudi Arabia.
The lack of imagination in predicting where additive manufacturing will be in use is surprising considering people are already 3D printing products at home and in the workplace. SpaceX 3D prints rocket bells for its Merlin Engines, and prints fuel and oxygen containment tanks for use in its Falcon 9 rockets. And 3D printers are actually printing houses, not just the products within them. By 2067 I would think 3D printing will have permanently altered manufacturing turning it back into a cottage industry. I am surprised that those surveyed didn’t mention Star-Trek-like replicators in their predictions. It is not such a significant leap to go from where we are today with 3D printing and replicators. The difference is a replicator assembles an end product from atoms and subatomic particles drawn from matter. A 3D printer’s raw materials are not yet at the atomic and subatomic level but are getting there.
As for growing organs in test tubes, we are already doing much more in the present day using stem cells, gelatinous matrices, 3D printers and other technologies that are all part of the burgeoning fields of genomics and regenerative medicine. By 2067 I have no doubt that we will be regrowing body parts by marshaling our own systems resources. No longer will this be a capability confined to amphibians and some reptiles.
It would seem reasonable that by 2067 we would have the capability to vacation on the Moon. With companies like Bigelow Aerospace already designing in-orbit and lunar hotels, I would think the likely date for Moon vacationing will be well before 2067. I’d put the date closer to 2040.
And finally, on predicting teleportation as likely by 2067, which 12% surveyed thought possible, I think this is most unlikely. Teleportation was a literary convenience created by Gene Roddenberry for Star Trek. It made it possible to move characters around quickly in the staging of a 47-minute television show. The science of quantum mechanics, however, makes dissolving us into the ether and reassembling us elsewhere, a certain act of suicide. Entangled particles aside, we will not travel this way anytime in the near or even far future.
What wasn’t considered by Americans as likely inventions in the next 50 years? Here are just 10 that I thought of and share with you. All of these are at some stage of investigation by engineers and scientists around the world, so they shouldn’t come as a surprise. I’m just surprised that none came up in the survey.
