Depending on technology to solve every working problem is fraught with hazards. More people are being added to the planet daily mostly in the countries of the Global South. Meanwhile, millions of job vacancies are posted in the Global North on Internet sites seeking workers. Why are we hell-bent on implementing automation for almost every type of work humans have done until now without considering the distribution of global human assets? What’s the rush to replace humans using robots and AI?
Besides machine automation it is the software….“there’s the rub.” In Shakespeare’s Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 1, in the famous “to be or not to be” speech, Shakespeare used the word rub to mean harm. In today’s automating world there seems to be a great deal of rub happening. It’s not just robots and AI software that are the villains, but our addiction to screens as well that is turning humanity into an enabler of its demise.
I’m no Luddite, a term that refers to a 19th-century labour movement in the United Kingdom that opposed automating the textile industry. When I woke up yesterday to news headlines about a software patch disrupting business operations across the planet, I almost wanted to become a Luddite as I surveyed just how far down the path to human insignificance we are treading.
The crash of systems across the world yesterday was not malware or a cyberattack. Its cause was a minor and routine security software update being deployed on Microsoft Internet servers. Somehow, the update contained bad code which turned into a technological mugging of New York City’s subways, major U.S. airlines, hospitals across the world and even my local grocery store where a single cash register was the only one still available.
I have grown up in the age of computing. I remember the prequel when mainframes were dominant. Coders learned languages like Fortran, Cobol and PL1. Those coders are long retired and their replacements are learning languages like C++ and C# which have no relevance for mainframe systems that remain the linchpin of financial, academic and government information technology infrastructure.
In many cases, there are no operating manuals for a new generation of programmers to refer to when trying to maintain these systems. Back in the day when I worked on systems documentation, describing what the software did or was supposed to do was important. A required prerequisite was to document processes before software implementations just in case the latter crashed. By maintaining manual legacy processes it meant businesses, utilities, hospitals and governments could still operate in the event of a software crash. Somewhere in the evolution of computing systems and software, however, those paper processes and the employees who used them have long vanished. Hence, yesterday, thousands of flights got cancelled, critical hospital surgical procedures were postponed, and travellers on public transit found themselves marooned. All of this was because of a software patch screw-up.
Today manufacturers, warehousing and logistic operations are automating using robots to take over the work formerly done by people. These businesses are becoming more technology-dependent. AI is being integrated into robotic subroutines or being deployed in computer networks that are the nerve centre of these businesses. That means there is less of a need for human intelligence to do the day-to-day work.
Back in 2020, a headline on the BBC website declared “Machines to ‘do half of all work tasks by 2025.'” This statement preceded the advent of AI Large Language Models (LLMs) which today are being deployed in all kinds of businesses. The facts backing the article’s argument came from polling executives in 300 of the world’s biggest companies whose compiled responses produced a report concluding that 97 million jobs would be added because of robotics while almost as many human jobs would disappear. This was particularly true for routine manual work processes. The article called it a “double disruption” and a hurdle for workers to overcome, arguing that businesses and government would need to retrain millions and deploy stronger safety nets for humans displaced by machines.
Did the BBC article get it right? We are not at the point of seeing robots take over 50% of business operations in 2024. But by the mid-2030s, at the present rate of AI deployment, we may see it cause the shedding of millions of jobs.
It’s not like work won’t need to be done. It just won’t be done by people. A recent Goldman Sachs report describes AI replacing 300 million full-time jobs, 46% administrative, 44% in the legal profession, 6% in the construction industry, and 4% in maintenance. AI software will replace human middle managers in finance and banking, media and marketing, and legal services.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently noted that U.S. banking and financial institutions are using AI to monitor 56% of banking transactions and 52% claim they are using the technology to generate revenue including providing customers with financial advice. The WEF also predicted that China’s financial sector will by 2027 shed 23% of its jobs using AI tools instead.
Another disruption will be news being written by machines. LLMs will write the stories that previously were composed by human reporters. News from businesses marketing their goods and services to the world will most certainly be AI-written. The shock to those earning a livelihood in marketing communications is only just beginning.
AI will write legal briefs impacting paralegal workers and junior lawyers. AI bots will democratize legal aid by giving people tools that provide legal help services without pricey hourly fees. A 2023 article in Fortune, cites Andrew Perlman, Dean of Suffolk University Law School that today low-income earners in the U.S. get very little to no legal help for 92% of civil legal problems. AI LLMs will reverse that percentile to the detriment of legal profession jobs.
Robots are already being used in agriculture, construction, logistics, warehousing, manufacturing, and mining. With AI added, robots will accrue intelligence whether they are in the shape of robotic arms, cobot pallets, or humanoid.
Today robotic arms are performing surgical procedures in hospitals. Robot pallet shuttles fulfill millions of online purchase requests daily. Warehouses and supply chain operators use robot mobile platforms, carts, forklifts and arms where manual labourers once did the jobs. Manufacturing assembly lines are dominated today by machines capable of doing the repetitive work that was formerly done by people.
The food industry at its source has been roboticized. Farming in the Global North increasingly uses robots and AI software for monitoring plant growth, development, and time to harvest whether by a single plant or across an entire field. Aerial robots and ground-based rovers have replaced farm workers doing the repetitive jobs of seeding, weeding, feeding and picking.
Deployment of AI and robotics has largely occurred in the countries of the Global North where population growth is slow or in decline and where education and training have not kept up with the changing nature of work leading to hundreds of thousands of unfilled jobs. Where possible, AI and robots are covering the gap.
In the Global South where population growth is high, the use of AI and robotics is different, meeting unfulfilled needs in areas where there are not enough local people with appropriate qualifications to do the work such as in healthcare, environmental monitoring, disaster response, and the managing of food and water security. In the Global South educational robots are being deployed to teach subject areas such as STEM where local skilled human resources are lacking. Robotic drones are being deployed to monitor the wildlife of Subsaharan Africa. Aerial robots are being used to fight diseases like dengue fever and malaria. Medical robots deliver surgical care. Safe inoculations and medical supplies are being dispensed to the 5 billion of the Global South in the absence of adequate healthcare infrastructure.
If Luddites are in the weeds, it is likely the Global South rather than the North where you will find them lurking. For underemployed manual labourers who today are the majority of migrant workers leaving the Global South, crossing borders, and willing to do menial jobs in the Global North, policies to harden borders to stop the stream will have consequences.
The world is facing the increasing pressure of human population growth in the Global South while deployment of robots and AI to do jobs that migrants would normally do represents a powder keg ready to explode as the 21st century continues to unfold.
]]>Water stress is defined as availability of freshwater per capita of less than 1.7 million liters (450,000 gallons) per person per year. That seems like a lot of freshwater, 4,657 liters (1,232 gallons) per person per day. But the number represents much more than water for domestic usage such as drinking, washing and sanitation. It includes water used for industrial and agricultural purposes.
The team used high-resolution Global LandScan population distribution datasets, combined these with population projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the Community Climate System Model 3, and current freshwater supply to come up with projections estimating demand for freshwater by 2025, 2050 and 2100. Interestingly, the variable that most impacts the data modeling is not rising temperatures from global warming, but rising human global population.
Results from the study show that in North America, Florida and the American Southwest are most vulnerable to water stress in the near and longer term. The Great Lakes region on the other hand should be sustainable.
On a global scale the data concludes that by 2100, 56 to 75% of the world’s population will experience freshwater stress. Central and South America may experience massive population shifts based on projected water scarcity data.
]]>Another source quotes the numbers as follows:
Why the discrepancy? It’s all about definitions. But the most telling statistic is the small percentage in either source devoted to agricultural production – between 4.71 and 11%. On that small amount of land we feed all of humanity and all of our domestic livestock.
Welcome to the Anthropocene
From 1 billion people in 1800, 1.6 billion in 1900, 6.5 billion in 2000, over 7 billion in 2011, and 9.5 billion projected by 2050, human population growth and our exploitation of the planet has led geologists to classify a new period of time called the Anthropocene. The Anthropocene depicts a stage in the planet’s geological evolution where human activity has started to alter the geomorphological features of the planet surface, the plant life, and ocean and atmospheric chemistry. No greater impactor exists than human population growth, outpacing mining and fossil fuel extraction, deforestation, damming of rivers, water and air pollution, and hyper-urban development.
To feed our growing population we have reinvented agriculture turning us from gatherers of wild plants into industrial agrarians. What Thomas Malthus theorized in 1798, that population growth would surpass food supply, has yet to come true because of agricultural intensification allowing humanity to feed its growing brood.
With human population growth continuing and finite land resources for creating food, what is the outlook for the 21st century? Will technology make it possible to continue sustaining people in the Developed World while solving the nutritional needs of those in the Developing World? Or will we reach a limit and witness conflicts for food and land based on the basic need to survive?
The following two scenarios paint very different pictures of our near future.
The Positive View – We Have the Capacity to Meet the Need
In the UN Food and Agriculture Organization report, “World Agriculture 2030,” Malthusian predictions are not anticipated. With a projected world population of 8.3 billion, the report describes a rosy picture of an increasingly well-fed population with 3,050 kilo-calories on average per day available to all people compared to 2,360 in 1960. Even in the Developing World the report forecasts an average of 3,000 kcal in consumption, well above the minimum daily requirement to sustain human life. The report forecasts that the number of hungry people will decline from 777 million today to 440 million by 2030.
Some highlights of the UN FAO report follow:
The summary report concludes that climate change may alter these projections hitting the Developing World harder. It states that small-scale farmers are most likely to feel the impact from prolonged drought, increased flooding and extreme weather events, salt water intrusions into groundwater sources and rising sea levels.
The Negative View – We are Heading for a Malthusian Meltdown
To counter the eternal optimism of the UN FAO, there is considerable evidence to suggest an alternate scenario. Worldwatch, an organization dedicated to creating an environmentally sustainable planet has its own set of facts. It reports some of the statistics that don’t appear in the UN FAO’s glowing predictions about the future:
Conclusion – The Outcome is Doubtful Based on the Way We Practice Agriculture Today
So is everything going to be OK as the UN FAO forecasts? Or are we facing an unsustainable future of doom and gloom as Worldwatch would suggest? How much can our technological inventiveness overcome the challenges of finite land, finite freshwater, rising human population, and rising consumption?
There is an interesting website called World Population Awareness. It features a counter displaying running totals for a range of statistics:
These are disturbing numbers because they just continue to mount up the longer you are on the site.
The word sustainability has become part of our lexicon these days. Everything good is green and sustainable. We talk about a sustainable economy, sustainable job creation, environmental sustainability. Sustainability requires investment and the investment is not just money. It also involves an investment of commitment on the part of the global community.
In the story “The Lady or the Tiger” the dilemma for a condemned man was to make a choice of opening one of two doors. Behind one lurked a tiger that would surely devour him. Behind the other was a lady who he would wed. He had no way of knowing ahead of time which outcome he would face.
We do and we have the means to change the outcome. But more on that in a future blog.
The world became a lot smaller place as transportation technology evolved faster ways to get from one place to another. Human settlement patterns altered from being predominantly rural in the 19th century to urban in the 20th. By the mid-20th century cities spread out spawning underground and above-ground railway networks and road infrastructure that created the urban daily commute from home to work and back.
The automobile became a personal freedom machine for those who could afford it. And increasingly in North America and Europe, automobiles were economically feasible for much of the population. This expansion was supported by a network of energy suppliers providing a fuel infrastructure for gasoline and diesel.
By the end of the 20th century in North America the era of relatively cheap gasoline and diesel was coming to an end. In Europe gasoline and diesel was already prohibitively expensive in the last 20 years of the century but that didn’t stop Europeans from buying and driving cars.
In the last decade of the century developing world automobiles and the infrastructure to support them started to take off with China and India representing the fastest growing car markets. This increased demand for gasoline and diesel to fuel these new automobile consumers.
Western governments, in trying to reduce fossil fuel consumption, began legislating fuel efficiency standards for automobiles. In 1997 Toyota, Japan’s largest automobile producer launched the first hybrid vehicle using a combination of electric-battery-driven motors along with a gasoline internal combustion engine. Honda soon followed in 1999 with its own hybrid, the Insight. This combination of electric motor and gasoline internal combustion engine provided manufacturers with a way to improve fuel efficiency. For a short period, one manufacturer, General Motors, designed and delivered to a limited market an all-electric car. But this experiment was soon squashed.
But automobiles represented only one type of transport. At the beginning of the 20th century land transportation for industry relied on rail and marine shipping to acquire raw materials and deliver finished products to market. But by the end of the century rail played a smaller part for these same industries as trucks became predominant. Ships went through dramatic redesign as well growing ever larger, whether moving bulk raw materials or container systems largely spawned by the rise of the trucking industry.
Even more significant was the development of heavier-than-air flight capability. The airplane and the infrastructure to support it became one of the great achievements of the 20th century. Air travel contributed to a rising global view of the planet, reducing the amount of time required for travel dramatically.
For a short time in the 20th century balloons vied with airplanes but became novelties by the end while jet-engines became predominant with propeller-driven aircraft relegated to specialized markets from the mid-century to its end. As airframes increased in size, global distribution of goods through the air grew rapidly in volume supplanting rail and marine shipping. Air passenger transportation briefly went supersonic with the launch of the Concorde and TU-144. By 1978 the latter was no longer in service and the Concorde’s last flight occurred in the first decade of the 21st century.
In the 20th century humans travelled in to Earth orbit and to the moon using rocket technology first pioneered in the United States, perfected as a weapon of war in Germany, and then enhanced further after World War II as the Americans and Soviet Union developed the technology further for military and scientific pursuits. Rocketry remained the purview of national governments with the cost of the technology far exceeding the ability of most private enterprise.
What will make the 21st century different? The planet has grown very small in the 20th century and will be even smaller still in the 21st. Our concepts of transportation will take on three perspectives. At the urban level we will need to enhance and invent new means of mass transit. At the planet-wide level, globalization will drive innovation on land, sea and air. And in space, extra-planetary transportation will alter our frame of reference as a species and representative of all the life on Earth.
In subsequent blogs on transportation we will explore the following:
1. Urbanization and Population Growth and its Impact
Urban concentration of human population will change our transportation models. Toronto, Canada, where I live, provides a great example. Between 2001 and 2006, growing traffic congestion increased the average commute time by 16%. While Toronto increased road lanes by 56% between 1986 and 2006, public transit grew by only 18%. Almost one-third of Toronto workers commuted more than 15 kilometers each way to do their jobs in 2006. In the Greater Toronto area and suburbs average daily commutes were longer. Toronto is one of the worst examples of unplanned urban transportation impacting on quality of life. But Toronto is not unique as a North American city. So we will look at this subject in greater depth.
2. Energy Conservation as a Transportation Challenge
In other sections of this blog we have talked about energy and the significant challenge that energy consumption has for our technical society. Governments are legislating industry to innovate to reduce the amount of energy needed for transporting people and goods. Reliance on fossil fuels is increasingly impacting health and the environment. Reconciling our need for energy and modes of transportation is something that 21st century technology needs to address.
3. Environmental Pollution, Climate Change and Transportation
Humanity by necessity is being forced to reduce its carbon footprint. We have talked about geo-engineering the planet in another section of this blog. But in this coverage we will specifically look at the technologies we currently use to move materials, goods and people and their impact on the environment and climate. How will we continue to do business globally using transportation technology to move raw materials, agricultural produce, and manufactured goods half way across the planet while dealing with CO2 and other pollutants?
4. Employment Patterns
We are changing the way we work today. The Internet, software-as-a-service (what techies call the cloud), virtual business presence, the disassembling of our bricks and mortar ideas about what is a business, have undergone dramatic change in the first decade of the 21st century. How will that accelerate through the rest of the century. What will the impact of the electronic commute be on the automobile industry and other forms of personal transportation? What will it mean for logistics and supply management when companies go virtual?
5. Alternative Fuels
Electric cars, biofuels, hydrogen, solar power, ion propulsion, micro-nuclear, what will be the fuels that drive our transportation technology in the 21st century? Will we wean ourselves completely from fossil fuels?
6. Technical Innovation
Electronic roadways, chained automobiles, smart vehicle technology, robotics, high-speed maglev and pneumatic rail systems, radical new ship designs, hypersonic aircraft, ion propulsion, solar sails, space elevators….these are concepts on the drawing boards and in the labs and R&D centres of innovators and entrepreneurs today. What is promising and realizable in the 21st century? What will remain a dream?
Enjoy the journey with me and please remember to ask questions and comment. I always respond.
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