In 2013 when photovoltaic cells made with perovskite were first being assessed they were less energy efficient than those using silicon. Over the past decade, however, perovskite has gained on its silicon cousin in terms of improved power conversion efficiency (PCE), the industry standard rating for solar cells. How perovskite has made gains is in the architecture of the cells themselves. Instead of a single layer of silicon photovoltaic cells, perovskite cells could be stacked one atop the other. This meant per square centimetre, a much higher PCE. Instead of a 15% PCE back in 2013, perovskite cells in 2024 produce a 34.6% PCE and a theoretical upper limit of 43%, higher conversion rates than the best silicon-based photovoltaics on the market today with a PCE of 24.1%. The upside to silicon is believed to be no greater than 30%. So, already perovskite photovoltaics are exceeding that upper limit.

I recently received an IDTechEx marketing release written by Maia Benstead, an IDTechEx Technology Analyst. She describes the current and future path of solar power and the fast pace of growth in deployment. Silicon photovoltaics remain the dominant player in the market but the limits on the PCE of these cells challenge the industry.

That’s where perovskite provides a solution and the IDTechEx latest report sees growth in the market for photovoltaics between 2025 and 2035 being led by the adoption of perovskite thin-film and perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells. IDTechEx forecasts that by 2030 perovskite cells will begin to replace the first generation of solar technology as silicon cells reach their end-of-life.

The IDTechEx report forecasts that tandem perovskite/silicon cells will replace existing silicon panels for use in solar farms and rooftop solar. Perovskite thin film will introduce new market opportunities for solar because cells made this way will be 90% lighter than silicon and provide greater flexibility for use on vertical surfaces of buildings and even as building wraps to turn an entire structure’s exoskeleton into a renewable energy generator. Thin film will also create a market for solar cell integration into Internet-of-Things (IoT) smart sensors to power light-emitting diodes (LEDs), photodetectors, x-ray detectors, nanoscale quantum dot semiconductors and all kinds of consumer electronics.

So what’s not to like about perovskite? The material is abundant. It can be turned into solar photovoltaic power generators from panels to different shapes and sizes that can conform to all kinds of surfaces. IDTechEx forecasts that perovskite panels will become comparatively priced to silicon by 2035.

Not all is bright and beautiful in the perovskite world. There are perceived downsides to seeing this material replace silicon in the next decade. These include:

1. The maturity of the solar power industry with manufacturers reliant on silicon materials will impede the uptake of perovskite/silicon tandem and perovskite thin-film panels as replacements in the marketplace.
2. Consumers may be risk-averse to be early adopters. Part of the risk aversion comes from the early history of perovskite-photovoltaic cells that when exposed to moisture, air and ultraviolet light showed a tendency to degrade fairly rapidly. Encapsulating the perovskite to shield it from degrading eliminates the issue.
3. Perovskite presents a potential pollution problem. The mineral contains minute amounts of lead. Material recycling processes need to address the lead issue before these types of cells become widely used.

IDTechEx predicts despite these concerns that perovskite photovoltaic installations will reach 85 Gigawatts annually by 2035 representing a substantial percentage of new and replacement solar installs.

The entire renewable energy industry numbers for wind and solar according to BloombergNEF by 2035 will reach 1 Terrawatt annually by then.

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