In a recent speech, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the planet is on a hot streak and that we need “an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.” He noted that the nations of the world are playing Russian Roulette with the planet and that the decisions we collectively make in the next 18 months will be critical stating “It’s climate crunch time.”
The rate of warming has sped up based on results from recent studies that calculate fossil-fuel-driven warming is increasing atmospheric mean temperatures by 0.26 Celsius (0.468 Fahrenheit) degrees per decade not including the effect of the latest effect of the cyclic El Niño arising in the mid-Pacific Ocean.
A World Meteorological Organization report states there is an 80% probability that in one of the next five years, we will see mean global temperatures exceed the 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) lower threshold target established in Paris at COP21 back in 2015.
The mean temperature rise in Canada has already surpassed the 1.5 Celsius threshold. In the last 12 months, Canada is 1.63 Celsius (2.93 Fahrenheit) higher than it was in the mid-19th century.
Guterres noted in his speech that action is needed by the richest 1% whose emissions equal the lowest 66% on the planet. He stated, “It is a travesty of climate justice that those least responsible for the crisis are hardest hit: the poorest people, the most vulnerable countries, Indigenous peoples, women and girls.”
According to a Bloomberg research study confirming results from a Climate Analytics report, 2024 may be the turning point in our struggle to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that rapid growth in renewable energy has upped power generation capacity by nearly 50% approaching 510 Gigawatts. This is the fastest growth rate in the last 20 years.
Based on existing policies and forecasts the IEA projects renewable capacity to reach 7,300 Gigawatts by 2028. It’s encouraging news but if projected to 2030 will still fall short of the 11,000 Gigawatts forecasters state we need to reverse CO2 emissions significantly.
Renewables need to triple to meet Paris climate goals and emission reduction targets. Instead, we will only grow 250%. We can make up the difference over the next six years if we can increase capacity by 21% annually. Bloomberg’s report states we can keep temperatures from rising beyond 1.75 Celsius (3.15 Fahrenheit) in the next two decades by spending an additional $215 trillion on new renewable projects. Based on our pace, however, we see CO2 emissions drop by 27% by 2050, and a rise in global temperatures of 2.6 Celsius (4.68 Fahrenheit) as a consequence by 2100. This would be an unacceptable outcome with dire consequences for countries nearest to the equator making many areas unliveable.
If you want to know why cannot get to net zero by 2050, look no further than to the governments of several countries and the fossil fuel industry they support. Oil companies are doubling down on exploration and pumping out more products, they say, to meet growing world energy demand.
The industry is on a consolidation and growth path. Exxon has just acquired Pioneer Natural Resources. Chevron is acquiring Hess. ConocoPhillips is buying Marathon. These companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars betting on the gamble that nothing will replace petrochemicals in the short to mid-term.
China isn’t about to abandon coal. The United States has become the largest exporter of fossil fuels to the world. These two countries and fossil fuel companies that operate within their boundaries and elsewhere hold the rest of the world hostage to their national and corporate objectives. The fossil fuel industry intends to exact its pound of flesh until it has pumped out and sold every last barrel and mined and delivered every last ton of coal.
Meanwhile, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FFNPT) which represents an alliance of environmental groups, scientists, and the public tries to muster international collaboration to end global dependence on fossil fuels. Against the ambivalence of China, the United States, and other countries equally committed to their fossil fuel industries, it will take years before the FFNPT is ratified by the UN.
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Martin Callanan, a member of the House of Lords in the UK, and the country’s Minister for Climate Change, also noted that beyond the fight to contain the pandemic, the British “must not lose sight of the immense challenge of tackling climate change and transitioning to a greener, climate-resilient global economy.”
With 30 climate ministers in attendance, the virtual conference concluded with all the right words being stated, but according to May Boeve, Executive Director of 350.org, the global climate change advocacy group, with no “firm commitments to a green and just recovery.” Those sentiments were echoed by Fridays for Future Germany, a chapter of the youth climate movement started by Greta Thunberg. In a tweet, the Fridays for Future Germany group stated “What we need is a clear commitment to increased climate goals that are in line with 1.5-degrees. Empty words will not help us here.”
Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor, addressed the meeting insisting on the European Union committing to a GHG reduction target better than the current 40% commitment by 2030. She called for a 50-55% reduction and for Europe and the global community to “prove our steadfastness.” Carbon pricing is just one of the instruments Chancellor Merkel believes lie in our bag of tools, and that the global community needs to adopt. Merkel called for investments in climate-friendly infrastructure as part of the overall strategy to right the world economy during the post-pandemic recovery.
Chancellor Merkel described the difficult discussions that lie ahead on where money should be spent. “If we look at the economic damages that the coronavirus crisis has caused in our respective budgets, the more important it will be to keep a firm eye on climate action when we introduce economic stimulus.” She called for nations to focus on future-proof technologies as part of their international commitment.
The European Union’s Green Deal could become the basis for global recovery strategies with investments in wind, hydrogen, energy efficiency, and the conversion of fossil-fuel-based heating and cooling to the full range of renewable options. The Petersberg discussions included conversations about extending the EU Green Deal to Africa and the launching of investments in innovative renewable energy projects there.
Readers of my post to this site yesterday describing the opening day of the Petersberg Climate Dialogue asked what countries, organizations, and cities were participants at this virtual conference? That was a bit difficult to find out, but here is a partial list of those countries and organizations in attendance in addition to Germany and the UK:
The United Nationsm of course, participated. Mark Carney, the newly-appointed special envoy for Climate Action, and former Governor of the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, was very much present, as was the UN’s Secretary-General, António Guterres, who addressed the group on April 28th.
In his speech, Guterres talked about how “delayed climate action will cost us vastly more each year in terms of lost lives and livelihoods, crippled businesses and damaged economies,” and while acknowledging that “COVID-19 has put the lives of billions of people around the globe in turmoil,” the actions of all nations in the post-pandemic world requires “political will” to adopt ambitious “mitigation, adaptation, and financing” to achieve “carbon neutrality by 2050.” He stated, “like the coronavirus, greenhouse gases respect no boundaries. Isolation is a trap. No country can succeed alone.”
So far 121 of the 195 countries in the world have committed to becoming carbon neutral by the mid-century mark which begs the question, why not all? One of the reasons is the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, a repeat performance by that country when it comes to global climate commitments. The U.S. pulled the same stunt under George W. Bush in withdrawing from the Kyoto Protocol.
The lack of U.S. participation to commit to carbon neutrality by 2050 is a big hole in the global strategy for a post-pandemic world since it is a leading member of the G20 countries who today produce more than 80% of global GHG emissions, and account for 85% of the world’s economic production.
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