The newest Tesla model SD has a range near 300 miles. That’s because it has a big 85 kWh battery pack that probably costs Tesla Motors $25,000 ($300 kWh). Range anxiety seems a trivial factor in the decision to buy a small passenger car that costs
$135,000. They make the same economic sense as Maserati Quaddraportes. Before
one asks about what percentage of private car owners would pay $135,000 for their car, he should ask what percentage could pay $135,000? Suppose over the next decade battery costs fall to $150/kWh; then Tesla could sell the SD model for $120,000 while holding the same net profit. How many motorists can pay $120,000 for their car?
Suppose Tesla engineers discover a revolutionary new kind of cheap battery that stores 1,300 kWh. Then the Tesla would have a range of 4,500 miles between recharges or each 15-minute battery exchange at a Tesla service center located near every major city. There would be less range anxiety than with a gasoline or diesel car. But how many additional motorists would or could pay the $135,000 to buy the Tesla car?
Actually, the Chevy Volt is the most technically sophisticated plug-in electric car on the market. It provides the same range anxiety as a gasoline car. Chevrolet has sold less than 3,000 Volts this year, and that at new consumer drive-out prices less than
$30,000. The 2016 Volt will have 50-mile all electric range. The multi charging station concept is economically stupid. See the latest Volt situation:
The basic Volt concept of overcoming range anxiety with a small range-extender gas engine, instead of many remote charging stations or larger batteries, is correct and will eventually prevail. But the only three things that will ever move a significant
percentage of drivers to electric cars are (1) government mandates (all electric cars sold in the US already get a $7,500 taxpayer subsidy), (2) much higher fuel prices, (3) lower purchase prices.