Comments on: SpaceX States It Will to Get to Mars Before NASA While the Latter Lists its Objectives to Get There https://techsomogro.com/spacex-states-mars-nasa-lists-objectives/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=spacex-states-mars-nasa-lists-objectives Science, Technology and the Future Wed, 25 May 2022 13:44:56 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.3 By: lenrosen4 https://techsomogro.com/spacex-states-mars-nasa-lists-objectives/#comment-25946 Wed, 25 May 2022 13:44:56 +0000 https://techsomogro.com/?p=32470#comment-25946 Doug Plata. Hi Doug, Before all of what you believe will happen, Starship has to prove itself as new technology. And it has to work repeatedly exceeding the performance successes of the Falcon 9. The windows to get to Mars are set in stone, but SpaceX has had milestone meeting problems in its program to develop reusable rocket systems. And it still has to deal with the trials and hazards of a voyage into Deep Space. Whereas cargo can probably be sent and robots can autonomously create conditions on Mars for a human crew to land and stay, the single remaining challenge beyond all that you have described will be addressing the survivability of those who take the voyage.]]> In reply to Doug Plata.

Hi Doug, Before all of what you believe will happen, Starship has to prove itself as new technology. And it has to work repeatedly exceeding the performance successes of the Falcon 9. The windows to get to Mars are set in stone, but SpaceX has had milestone meeting problems in its program to develop reusable rocket systems. And it still has to deal with the trials and hazards of a voyage into Deep Space. Whereas cargo can probably be sent and robots can autonomously create conditions on Mars for a human crew to land and stay, the single remaining challenge beyond all that you have described will be addressing the survivability of those who take the voyage.

]]> By: Doug Plata https://techsomogro.com/spacex-states-mars-nasa-lists-objectives/#comment-25936 Wed, 25 May 2022 00:29:42 +0000 https://techsomogro.com/?p=32470#comment-25936 Hi Len. I like this post and largely agree. However, it is likely that SpaceX will reach Mars with cargo well before the end of this decade. Launch windows are 2024, 2026, and 2029.

Reaching orbit & recovering the first stage are likely between this summer & the end of the year. Tanker docking is practically guaranteed & propellant transfer is not particularly difficult. So, beyond LEO with significant cargo will likely be 2023.

SpaceX’s Mega Bay has room for the construction of 10-12 Starships simultaneously. So, by 2024, SpaceX will have dozens of Starship variants (boosters, tankers, depots, lunar Starship, Mars Starship, & P2P).

SpaceX will likely send multiple Martian Starships, spaced out by a couple of days for multiple landing attempts with software corrections after each attempted landing. 2026 Mars Starships will be physically modified to take into account the 2024 landing attempt telemetry. It is likely that, by the end of 2026 they will have the opportunity to attempt a dozen+ Mars landings.

With all of those different attempts, it is likely that they will have succeeded in landing some cargo ships and so will be able to send some crewed Starships in 2029 that will attempt a landing with the 2029 cargo landings going first.

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