Occupying the “high ground” in space may have been the impetus for the Space Race between the United States and the Soviet Union in the 1960s to be the first to put boots on the Moon. Now, it appears to have re-emerged with NASA, America’s national space agency, and CNSA, China National Space Administration, in a new race to duplicate that 57-year-old lunar accomplishment.
In the 1960s, the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) estimated that the Soviet Union was spending as much as US$ 10 billion to beat NASA to the Moon. It is estimated that the Soviet program expenditures peaked at approximately $7 billion in 1969, the year Armstrong took that first step on the lunar surface. NASA’s overall spending was much greater than the Soviets’ in the effort to win the race. Peak NASA expenditures occurred in 1966, with the agency spending between $5.2 and $5.9 billion, $3.2 billion in the 1969 landing year, and overall $25.8 billion.
The New Lunar Space Race
If you think the Apollo numbers are high, adjusted for inflation, in current dollars, they would be between $220 and $280 billion. For Artemis, to date, NASA will have spent over $100 billion by the end of this year.
What are the Chinese spending? The CNSA website and China’s Xinhua news agency are equally circumspect. Industry watchers, however, put China’s annual space budget at approximately $5 billion, and $37 billion in total is the estimate for its human Moon landings program by 2031.
Artemis IV and V, the first two NASA lunar landings, are currently scheduled for 2028. The budget for these two in total is currently $9.9 billion.
Spending this kind of money, whether you are China or the U.S. and its affiliate members in the Artemis Program or the affiliated Artemis Accords, is hardly trivial when you consider how it could be used here on Earth. NASA has 20 countries partnering with it, along with the European Space Agency, Japan’s JAXA and Canada’s CSA. Dozens of companies are developing the technology that Artemis will use.
The CNSA has formed an Artemis Accord equivalent entitled the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), involving domestic state-owned partners such as China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the China Manned Space Agency, and the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology. More than a dozen countries have signed ILRS agreements, including Russia’s Roscosmos, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, Ethiopia, South Africa, and several others.
Core Objectives for Both
The Artemis Program and Accords, and China’s ILRS plan for a permanent presence on the lunar surface. Both are looking at the lunar south pole. Why there? Because the south pole has craters where water ice is present, a vital resource for habitation and fuel. Being at the South Pole means sunlight can be captured and harvested from crater rims continuously, avoiding the 14-day, 14-night lunar cycle if landings were elsewhere.
Ice in the South Pole craters measures between 100 million and 1 billion tons. The lunar regolith also contains buried ice lying less than a metre below the surface. This volume of ice will easily support bases established by NASA or the CNSA. It means enough water for drinking, agriculture, hygiene, and other operations. It means oxygen for air and fuel. It means hydrogen for rockets, power, and resource processing and manufacturing.
China wants to beat NASA to the South Pole for bragging rights. NASA wants to get there before China to establish America’s continuing lunar and space power dominance.
What Stands in America and China’s Way?
NASA has the throw weight to make it back to the lunar surface before China.
NASA can choose from several options, including the Space Launch System, SpaceX’s Starship megarocket or Blue Origin’s Glenn rocket.
China is still developing its heavy lift rocket, the Long March 10. The first flight test will likely be in 2027 or 2028.
NASA has a tested deep space capsule, Orion, to get human crews to lunar orbit.
China has yet to test a deep space successor to its Shenzhou, used today to ferry taikonauts to China’s space station. Called Mengzhou, it may undergo its first flight test in 2027 or 2028.
NASA is counting on two contractors to deliver lunar landers. SpaceX is modifying its Starship to create the Human Landing System (HLS). Blue Origin is building the Blue Moon Mark 2. Both may be ready in time for the Artemis III mission planned for 2026, where they will undergo testing in Earth orbit.
China’s lunar lander, Lanyue, is expected to be ready for its first flight test in 2027 or 2028.
A lot of things can go wrong with all these different moving parts. Timelines may slip. Accidents could cause prolonged delays. Costs could spiral upward. Testing in low-Earth orbit won’t be the same as the real mission in orbit around and landing on the Moon.
NASA has done it before, and other than the agency’s complacency until the arrival of its new Director, Jared Isaacman, seemed to lack the energy, direction and sense of urgency that a race entails.
China has all the motivation in the world to beat NASA back to the Moon.
What’s Humanity’s Reward
Let’s hope our return to the lunar surface is not for glory but to learn more about our place in the Universe and what our species can accomplish without war.
So when said and done, other than bragging rights, what will we have gained? If humanity can establish a permanent presence on the Moon, will it be a stepping stone to becoming an interplanetary species?
Whatever the result, we won’t be the only life going along for the ride. Humanity will bring a great deal of life from Earth along with us.
Where to next? NASA and the CNSA both see Mars as their next stop. Wouldn’t it be advantageous if the two, along with their many partners, were to combine forces for such an adventurous endeavour?
