Comments on: Headlines: New NASA Doomsday Scenario – Real or a Hoax?

By: The Future of Scientific Management, Today!

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 03:22:22 +0000

[…] New NASA Doomsday Scenario – Real or a Hoax? http://www.21stcentech.com/headlines-nasa-doomsday-scenario-real-hoax/ […]

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By: lenrosen4

Fri, 21 Mar 2014 18:43:03 +0000

In reply to Pete Smith.

See my blog posting today which provides some further insight into the Doomsday Scenario model, its authorship, and NASA’s affiliation with it.

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By: EA

Fri, 21 Mar 2014 18:16:36 +0000

Note that there is no validations with number in the publication, no correlation with the parameters used and real life data, no back testing on the given example (Roman, Mayan, etc…)

Modeling the world with 4 1er order equation, wonderful maths 😀

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By: Pete Smith

Fri, 21 Mar 2014 16:45:29 +0000

My understanding is that the report has been submitted for publication. This is not the same as publication, which explains why there is no trace of the article. I expect a significant period of peer review. As for Safa Motesharrei, he certainly does exist, here’s his page at Sesync http://www.sesync.org/users/smotesharrei . I find in these matters that it helps if you spell people’s names right.

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By: lenrosen4

Mon, 17 Mar 2014 19:11:58 +0000

One of my readers, Tim Eaton, has kindly forwarded the link to the paper authored by Safa Motesharri. The link is http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ekalnay/pubs/handy-paper-for-submission-2.pdf. A description of the HANDY model is well described based on an enhanced version of the predator-prey, feast and famine cyclical model we can document in the world of nature. Total population is divided into the masses and elites. Natural resources are nonrenewable, regenerative,and continuously renewable.Technological advances are factored into the model as well. Even accumulated wealth is considered. Applying all these variables the model comes up with a sustainable equilibrium for the carrying capacity of the planet. The results that most reflect our existing world are defined as those from an unequal society in which elites consume too much (think the Developed World) and commoners (the Developing World) are unable to sustain their societies. In this model “business as usual” occurs among the elite despite impending catastrophe. It is this scenario that is used to explain the collapse of past civilizations and seen as a forecast for our own to decline at some point in the future.

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By: Alex Smith

Mon, 17 Mar 2014 17:06:56 +0000

Please contact Alex Smith, [email protected]

Like you, I was disturbed to find no evidence of the original study, or that any of the many sources which reprinted the original article tried to find/read it.

Can you contact me, and let me know if you managed to track anything down?

Meanwhile, in this week’s Radio Ecoshock show, I have two scientists who agree collapse is inevitable, Dr. Michael Jennings and Dr. Sing S. Chew.

Download that mp3 here:

http://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_140319_Show.mp3

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