In Part 1 of this review of Earth Day, which occurred on April 22nd, and the overall impact of this annual event, we described the perspectives of fossil fuel proponents and those seeking to end our dependency on them for energy.
We posed the five questions appearing below and attempted to answer most of them in Part 2.
- Can we ignore the distractions of politics and the sidebar issues of today and stay focused on the existential threat that climate change presents?
- Can we collectively and willingly change the way we live to leave a less negative environmental footprint on the planet?
- Do we have the collective will to end our fossil fuel reliance that currently powers our society and replace it with sustainable energy-producing alternatives?
- Do we have the technological know-how and will to spend the money and develop the solutions to help remove GHGs from the atmosphere and ocean?
- Are we prepared to help communities and nations already impacted by our fossil fuel addiction and help with compensation and adaptation?
In Part 3, we will endeavour to deal with the remaining issues not covered in the previous two segments and ask two additional questions:
- Is the current state of carbon capture and removal technology capable of achieving the goal climate scientists have set to keep Earth’s atmosphere well below 2°C (3.6°F) of warming, or better yet, no more than 1.5°C (2.7°F)?
- Are there sufficient economic conditions in place at this time, or in the near future, to create a viable market for carbon capture and removal?
For question 4 above, and these last two questions, the current answer for all is no. The global commitment, the technology and economic conditions are running counter to the execution of what we need to address global warming effectively.
Fossil Fuel Providers and Global Energy Demand
If you are currently working in the fossil fuel industry, the latest Middle East conflict points to the critical value of the job you do and the products you produce for the global economy. Here in the third decade of the 21st century, the planet runs on your products, even though competition from renewable energy is rapidly on the rise.
GDP Growth Drives the Global Economy
Why is that? Modern economies are driven by growth. Developing Nations want what Developed Nations already have. That means the demand for more energy is accelerating. For fossil fuel companies, this “put the pedal to the metal mindset” is music to their ears. So, more oil and natural gas are needed. More coal is needed. More coal and gas-fired power plants are needed.
A Geopolitics Downer
The Strait of Hormuz closing has produced a windfall for fossil fuel companies as geopolitics are raising the price for oil and natural gas. The closing has put a major chokepoint in place from which approximately a quarter of oil and natural gas is exported to world markets.
A Global Warming Downer
At the same time, national governments, climatologists and environmentalists are pointing to the growing global warming and ocean acidification crises. In an article I read this week, it stated that the first tipping point from burning fossil fuels has already been passed, describing the bleaching of 80% of warm-water coral reefs this year. Add to this the current predictions of a Pacific Ocean super El Niño this summer and 2026 being the warmest year on record. For Earth’s natural systems, it appears that global economic growth is turning into a disease unless we change how we grow.
Consequences for the Planet and Fossil Fuel Industry
Growth and prosperity are noble aspirations, but unless both can be achieved with environmental sustainability front and centre, they will lead to foreseeable, destructive consequences.
For fossil fuel providers, they envision carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) as their future “get-out-of-jail” card. With it, they can continue to seek oil and natural gas and supply it to the world. Maybe the coal can go, but liquid fossil fuels will still power the planet.
This presupposes that CCS can absorb the greenhouse gas (GHG) fossil fuel industries produce, and create a net-zero, or even a negative-zero emissions future.
Carbon Capture Technology Today to 2030
In December 2024, I wrote a blog post on global CCS capacity. That year, CCS capacity was 51 million tons, up 2 million from 2023. Total capacity projections showed growth to 435 million tons by 2030. At the time, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was advocating in its latest report for CCS levels to hit 900 million tons.
Current CCS Projections
The 2025 Global Status of CCS Report, described as the flagship site for the technology, indicates 77 projects operating. That’s a 54% increase over 2024, with 47 under construction, 610 in development and 106 projects in the pipeline. Total CCS projects operational or in development have reached 734, up 17% over the previous year.
How much CO₂ capture capacity is now in place? Currently, CCS projects can capture 64 million tons. Based on projects in the pipeline, capture capacity will reach 337 million tons by 2030.
Current Emission Projections
The above numbers sound encouraging until you account for the annual GHG emissions produced. Data from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) show current annual emissions between 37 and 42 billion tons of CO₂ or equivalent GHGs (methane and nitrous oxide).
Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for 89 to 90% of the total. That number stands at a record high and is not expected to go down soon. In fact, it’s going the other way with projections pointing to 50 to 56 billion tons of CO₂ or equivalent GHGs by 2030, still with most coming from fossil fuels.
What’s Needed
The scale of CCS technology buildout is well beyond the current pace of project development as described above. What we would need is over 80,000 CCS working sites, each capturing 625,000 tons annually. The current average capacity of the 77 operational sites averages 649,350 tons. So the slightly smaller capacity fits with current CCS operations. Based on the current average cost per CCS project, the industry and government would need to invest between US$ 18 and 23 trillion to make this a reality.
The Viability of a Carbon Market Today and in the Future
The last question we asked was whether the conditions were favourable for carbon capture and removal today. With that comes the question of whether market mechanisms can facilitate the rapid deployment of CCS globally?
Clearly, based on rising temperatures, sea levels, and ocean acidification, the environmental conditions favour CCS. But does the market?
Attempts to price carbon have shown signs of life recently, even though a major player, Canada, has ended consumer pricing for CO₂.
Carbon pricing coverage around the planet continues to be patchy and widely variable. Current effective pricing comes from Europe: Sweden at €116 price per ton of CO₂, and the European Union at €100.
Elsewhere, however, market pricing is widely variable while low. For example, Mexico’s price is US$ 3, and China’s is $12 per ton of CO₂.
Current CCS operating projects put the needed price per ton of CO₂ at $290. As more sites are built, they will need pricing at $60 to $110 per ton of CO₂ or GHG equivalents. This price reflects the expected declining costs per project as CCS technologies scale up.
